There's never been a better time for a left alliance - if they don't fall out first
A left government led by
Mary Lou McDonald
,
Holly Cairns
and
Ivana Bacik
would represent practical politics. The biggest obstacle to success is a split.
But there is a mountain to climb electorally and the next general election, likely to happen in 2029, is some way over the horizon.
Sinn Féin
, the
Social Democrats
and
Labour
understand that as opposition, they failed to offer an alternative before the last election, with the result that an unloved Government limps on.
Ironically, it was the Government that unified the opposition. Allowing backbench Regional Group TDs to simultaneously enjoy the opportunities of opposition and the privileges of Government was a stunt too far.
Their instant unity was more surprising given the Seanad election which had just concluded. That particular election was a tale of some deals done, other offers rebuffed, and promises broken among the larger left parties and the Greens. But that's politics. It is always tomorrow that counts.
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The result is that we have a more focused opposition and that will matter for the Government.
The Robert Tressell Festival in Dublin's Liberty Hall last month was a platform for left unity. Robert Tressell was the pen name of the real-life Irish house painter Robert Noonan, who wrote the great book The Ragged-Trousered Philanthropists. At the festival, there were positive expressions of intent about forging a closer bond. McDonald said the left can take the Government on and offer a 'real alternative'. Labour's Marie Sherlock said the general election had been a kind of own goal for the left, adding that a common left platform was needed to oust a 'semi-permanent centre-right government'.
Sinéad Gibney had more to say on the same theme for the Social Democrats. But it was Socialist TD Ruth Coppinger who talked about alternative politics, not just an alternative government, when she said 'a common left platform has to be a challenge to capitalism and the ideas of capitalism'. She was on her own on that.
The centre has not held since 2020 because neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael are an alternative government to the other
None of Sinn Féin, Social Democrats or Labour have ruled out going into government with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. They want the Government parties out, of course, but a test of mettle will be their willingness to burn the bridge to coalition with what passes for centre-right politics in Ireland. The ambient lighting on the left is redder now, but the mood remains tentative.
Before the last election, Davy, the stockbroker group, told its clients that Sinn Féin was '
more New Labour than Corbyn Labour
'. In fact, it's a populist, nationalist party. It might, if it sticks to its new script, be the centre of a left-wing coalition. This is because, to the discomfort of some in Labour, the Social Democrats are prepared to stand in the picture with Sinn Féin.
The Social Democrats are a party of mainly new TDs, who know they don't really like Labour but have forgotten why. Their founding identity was based on not being a mudguard for Fine Gael and its cohort of younger voters were never inoculated against Sinn Féin. By exercising their agency, they have weakened Labour's natural preference for a Labour–Social Democrats–Green alliance without Sinn Féin. The Social Democrats' willingness to stand in with Sinn Féin means Labour has less scope to stand out. A new mix on the left is giving a different flavour. It is a big deal for Labour to accept they now share a franchise, but they are.
McDonald stated a plain truth when she said the days of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael 'controlling both government and opposition at the same time are over'. The centre has not held since 2020 because neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael are an alternative government to the other. If they can't muster the numbers together, one or the other may be able to form a government with some left parties, where the left is more prominent than ever before. Alternatively, they lose decisively, the left alliance holds and forms a government in a historic departure of sorts.
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Coppinger's views on the need for the left to challenge capitalism will never be taken up by the soft left. The left generally, and Sinn Féin particularly, are allergic to the broader tax base that would fund the more active state they demand.
The slow bicycle race towards the next election has begun. For Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats and Labour, their mutual relations sway between coalition, colonisation and cannibalism.
They have the makings of an alternative government, however. Housing at home, Trump abroad and diminishing traditional political loyalties mean that anything is possible, including a left government in Ireland.
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