How long until computers replace pilots?

Flying remains one of the safest forms of transport. A study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) found that the chances of dying in a plane accident were around one in 13.7 million passenger boardings in the period between 2018 and 2022.
But a recent raft of incidents has given people pause for thought. Among the questions asked is, what is the potential for human error?
It's a difficult conversation to have. After the recent devastating Air India incident, Reuters reported that India's aviation safety watchdog had requested records for the pilots onboard as part of a regulatory review of the accident (though there is currently no suggestion that they held any blame).
Meanwhile, a probe by the UK's Air Accident Investigation Branch showed that an aborted take-off on a British Airways plane at Gatwick in 2024 was caused by the co-pilot mixing up left and right and using the wrong control, forcing the pilot to make an emergency stop.
Some argue that fatigue, arguments in the cockpit and split-second errors of judgment can all have devastating effects, and aircraft developers say that automated systems could make planes safer, pointing out that computers already do a good share of the heavy lifting on commercial flights. On recent test flights, Airbus's A350-1000 even completed autonomous taxis, take-offs and landings, according to aviationtoday.com.
'You cannot replace human senses'
Captain Emma Henderson MBE, who has piloted flights for one of Europe's largest airlines, believes that autonomous aircraft do have a place – in war zones which present dangers to pilots, for example. 'If you lose a drone, there's no loss of human life in the air,' she says. 'It makes sense in certain situations that are very dangerous.'
This kind of autonomous flight is also a key consideration for engineers at Honeywell Aerospace, which works to find autonomous aviation solutions. 'In commercial and humanitarian sectors, uncrewed and highly automated aircraft can deliver cargo, medical supplies or emergency aid to hard-to-reach or hazardous environments, especially when human access is limited or unsafe,' says David Shilliday, the company's vice-president and general manager of advanced air mobility.
But outside of these parameters, Henderson believes pilotless planes could bring their own safety issues. She's even wary of Amazon trialling autonomous drone deliveries in Darlington. 'I can't think how it's a good idea to allow something like a drone to fly that close to people. It's dangerous,' she says. 'There's also the security side of it, because there's no guarantee that that system, as an example, can't be hacked.'
On a larger scale, she adds: 'They're never going to be able to respond to the 'black swan' events [high-impact events that are difficult to predict but that in retrospect appear to have been inevitable]. Even in the tragic Air India crash, a computer couldn't have changed what happened.
'It doesn't matter how well you think you can programme a machine, you cannot replace human senses. I had a fume event on the way to Belfast. It was an almost imperceptible spell. The aircraft itself didn't throw out any faults so my question would be, 'how is an unmanned vehicle going to respond in that situation?'.
'We landed the plane within about 20 minutes. Passengers were unaffected. Some of them said they felt a bit odd, but they were largely unaffected. The crew were all put in an ambulance and we had our blood stats taken and we had depleted O2 levels and elevated CO2 levels in our blood. But there was no indication on that aircraft: an unmanned vehicle would have no way of knowing that.'
Psychological hurdles
At Honeywell Aerospace, Shilliday also believes there are significant hurdles to pass before autonomous commercial passenger flights become a reality – significantly, psychological ones. Whether the public will be prepared to board pilotless aircraft is doubtful. A 2017 survey by investment banking group UBS found that only 17 per cent of people asked would be willing to fly on a plane without a pilot in situ.
'While society is becoming more comfortable with autonomy through exposure to autonomous cars and commercial drones, there is still significant work required to build public trust and ensure safety and certification pathways for uncrewed passenger flight,' he says.
'We believe the best path forward is to build trust through transparency and gradual exposure, starting with proven autonomy in cargo, defence and humanitarian missions. Over time, successful real-world operations and visible safety records will lay the foundation for acceptance in passenger aviation.'
In the meantime, Shilliday believes that, rather than making airline pilots redundant, the technology could improve their experience in the skies. 'It's a continuum, not a binary switch, and safety gains can happen across many levels of autonomy, long before a cockpit is empty,' he says.
'Greater autonomy enhances safety by reducing pilot workload, especially for repetitive or time-sensitive tasks. This frees the pilot to focus on higher-level decision-making and situational awareness. These systems are not designed to replace human pilots overnight, but to assist them, just as autopilot systems and fly-by-wire technologies have done for decades.'
It takes two
Despite this, commercial pilots do worry that computers may be coming for their jobs. It's a situation that's been bubbling under for a while. In 2023, pilots associations from across the world came together to launch a 'Safety Starts With Two Campaign' in response to suggestions that European operators were keen to switch to single-pilot operations (current regulations require two pilots).
Those pitching pilotless commercial passenger flights have suggested that routes with one pilot onboard might work as an intermediary phase. But many pilots believe this would be unsafe.
'The safest thing to do is to have two pilots in the flight deck so, if something happens to one, you have another,' says Henderson. 'It's also about cross-checking: who's going to put that information into the aircraft? If you need to divert somewhere, who's going to suddenly work out all that performance into the aircraft to make sure it does land in a safe place and that it's not breaching any regulations. I think that there is a lack of understanding among people who think that pilots just sit reading the paper.'
The move has led some insiders to argue those pushing for more autonomous flying aren't driven by safety concerns at all, but rather cost-cutting. The UBS study suggested that airlines could save as much as $35 billion (£26 billion) per year by switching to autonomous planes.
Pilot salaries can account for up to 25 per cent of the operating costs for each flight and, in the past year, they have risen rapidly as airlines struggle with another pressing issue – a lack of qualified staff. But Henderson points out that pilotless flights would require different staff, as well as more training programmes.
To satisfy regulatory bodies in the future, questions will also need to be asked about what happens in the event of computer failure or software faults. Cyberattacks are another consideration.
Last, but by no means least, is putting moral and ethical decisions in the hands of computers – for example, should a patient become ill or should the worst happen and an incident become inevitable.
'It is not about computers making open-ended ethical decisions,' says Shilliday. 'Instead, these systems operate within defined parameters, protocols and mission objectives. If a passenger becomes ill or in a contingency situation, the system can assist by triggering predefined emergency procedures – like recommending the nearest diversion airport – but final judgment typically remains with a human operator or pilot.'

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