Despite close ties with Iran, Russia stands aside as Israel attacks

Iran aided the Kremlin with badly needed drones in the first year of its Ukraine invasion, helped Moscow build out a critical factory to make drones at home and inked a new strategic partnership treaty this year with President Vladimir V. Putin, heralding closer ties, including in defense.
But five months after that treaty was signed, the government in Iran is facing a grave threat to its rule from attacks by Israel. And Russia, beyond phone calls and condemnatory statements, is nowhere to be found.
Iranian nuclear facilities and energy installations have been damaged, and many of the country's top military leaders killed, in a broad Israeli onslaught that began Friday and has since expanded, with no sign that Moscow will come to Tehran's aid.
'Russia, when it comes to Iran, must weigh the possibility of a clash with Israel and the United States, so saving Iran is obviously not worth it,' said Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russia-Iran relations. 'For Russia, this is just a fact.'
The situation reflects a dispassionate political calculus by Moscow, which is prioritizing its own war against Ukraine, as well as its need to maintain warm relations with other partners in the Middle East, which have helped Moscow survive Western economic sanctions, analysts say.
Putin, the analysts add, doesn't want Iran to have nuclear weapons and also wants to keep improving relations with President Trump, who has called on Iran to make a deal on its nuclear program to end the attacks. Russia is also benefiting from a spike in oil prices since the attack began.
Analysts say Putin is unlikely to become involved militarily in the conflict or to arm Tehran too aggressively. In part, this caution arises from fear of alienating the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, two increasingly important partners for Moscow that wouldn't welcome a more powerful Iran. But it's also because his forces are already tied down in Ukraine.
So instead, Moscow is positioning itself to be relevant in talks to end the fighting.
That marks a shift from how Russia responded a decade ago, when another regional partner faced a dire threat. In Syria, the Kremlin mounted a military intervention to shore up the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. The effort ultimately failed in December, when al-Assad's rule collapsed. Half a year later, Moscow now faces a further possible erosion of its regional influence.
'The real issue for Moscow is what can they afford to send the Iranians at this point as far as military equipment is concerned, given the demands of the conflict against Ukraine?' said Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
In calls with Trump, Putin has offered to help with Iran negotiations, possibly in part to convince Washington that there are other benefits to normalizing relations with Russia, even if Putin won't grant the White House's demands to end the war against Ukraine.
Putin called the leaders of both Iran and Israel after the attacks began and briefed Trump on the content of those conversations, the Kremlin said.
In recent days, Russia's Foreign Ministry noted that the United States stood ready to continue talks with Iran over the nuclear program, hinting that Tehran should consider returning to the table. Russia has also offered to take Iran's highly enriched uranium.
'There is a desire to reset this relationship and present yourself to the Americans as an interlocutor on all things in global affairs, including the Iranian nuclear dossier, without actually talking about Ukraine with any kind of substance,' said Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif.
But Putin risks alienating the Iranians, who have long distrusted Moscow and feared that the Kremlin could make a bargain with the White House and 'throw Tehran under the bus,' Notte said.
Regardless, negotiations could still be far away, despite the Kremlin's offer to facilitate them.
Israel expanded its targets on Monday to include the Iranian state broadcaster and Iran's elite Quds Force. Responding to a question at a news conference on Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel didn't rule out the possibility that Iran's government would collapse.
Russia has long had a robust relationship with Iran, becoming the country's largest foreign investor last year. It has supplied arms to Iran for years but has stopped short of providing the full suite of weaponry that Tehran wants.
Until recently, Putin cultivated friendly relations with Israel, complicating his provision of sophisticated arms to Iran. He also developed deeper ties with Gulf nations opposed to seeing Tehran amass greater military might.
'Iran has been asking Russia for weapons for the last few years,' Smagin said. 'It has been asking for aircraft, it has been asking for air defense syste Russia has given practically nothing.'
'Overall, this, of course, leads to the weakening of Russia's positions in the Middle East,' Smagin said. 'This is certain.'

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