China's Temu and Shein want to crack Europe, but the US is too big to quit

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Huang Lun was one of the original architects of his Guangzhou-based company's push into the US market, helping it to sell underwear and yoga pants via the online commerce platforms Amazon, Temu and Shein . The American market now makes up 70% of the company's total sales, but in March, with US President Donald Trump threatening imminent tariffs on Chinese imports, Huang was tasked with finding new markets in Europe and Australia to help soften the inevitable blow.Huang's company is one of hundreds of thousands that collectively ship billions of dollars worth of goods to the US, taking advantage of digital marketplaces, low-cost, high-volume manufacturing operations in China, US consumers' voracious appetite for cheap clothing, electronics, toys and homeware, and a 'de minimis' exemption on import taxes for low-value packages. The Trump administration's on-again, off-again trade war with China threatens the economics of the business, making it far more expensive to ship products to customers, and putting a tax on every imported product that either the consumer or the retailer will need to pay.To mitigate the risk, Chinese e-commerce platforms are shifting resources to Europe and other markets, spending heavily on promotions to try to woo European consumers. European regulators and retailers are braced for a flood of low-cost goods. But that may be slow to come. The merchants in China — the companies that actually buy, sell and ship apparel, electronics, decorations and toys — are more focused on shoring up their core markets in the US, preferring to take higher risks and lower margins rather than tackle the complexity and bureaucracy of Europe.Huang is among them. When the Trump administration announced 145% tariffs on Chinese imports and cancelled the de minimis exemption, the company initially dropped its sales targets for the US. But soon after, Huang was pulled back to work part-time on the American market again. Trump suspended some tariffs for 90 days, and the company rushed to get new production orders to its factories and booked container space to ship a few more months' worth of inventory to the US. 'We still need to keep an eye on other markets to always prepare in case things get worse again, but it's less urgent now,' he said. 'We feel the US market is back, at least for this year.'After the Trump administration's tariff announcement, many Chinese sellers on e-commerce platforms increased their US prices. The average price of 98 products on Shein tracked by Bloomberg News rose by more than 20% by early May from two weeks prior. Observed sales on Shein were 16% lower for the 28 days ended May 22, compared to the same period a year ago, according to Bloomberg Second Measure, which analyzes credit and debit card transactions in the US. Temu's sales fell about 19% in the same period from 2024 levels.Some of the frustrations that Chinese companies have found in trying to enter European markets are there by design. The EU and UK typically have more rules on product standards and consumer protections than the US — non-tariff barriers that Trump has referenced in his trade disputes with the continent.European regulators have already begun cracking down. The Commission is formally investigating Temu for potential breaches related to the sale of illegal products and manipulative user interface designs. In May, a separate enforcement action found that Shein used tactics such as fake discounts and misleading sustainability claims. Shein has one month to respond or face possible fines based on its EU turnover.The US' tariffs on China and the end of the de minimis rule has increased a sense of urgency in the EU, but the bloc's concerns predate the trade war. In 2024, about 4.6 billion parcels valued at €150 or less — the EU's de minimis threshold — entered the bloc, almost double the 2023 total. More than 90% originated from China.Policymakers tend to argue that enforcing European standards protect consumers and mean that imported products can't undercut local manufacturers by producing inferior, unsafe goods. 'It's not about trying to prevent affordable products or blocking clever business models that we ourselves didn't come up with,' Bernhard Kluttig, a deputy German economy minister, said. 'It's really just about making sure that everyone plays by the same rules.'When the Darmstadt Regional Council, a regional authority in Germany, tested 800 products from Asian e-commerce platforms, they found 95% of them didn't meet European standards. Among the products were laser pointers that exceeded legal output limits by up to 300 times. 'If you get that in your eye, then your eyesight is gone,' Angelika Küster, head of the council's department for market surveillance, product and chemical safety, said. Other checks found toys with 100 times the permitted concentration of toxic chemicals.The council has stepped up inspections and hired more staff to examine products from e-commerce sites, Küster said, 'but it's clear that we can't compete with the sheer volume of products being introduced.'The European Commission has launched a new initiative called Priority Control Areas to carry out surprise cross-border checks and launched a web crawler tool, which it hopes can help to identify harmful products listed on e-commerce sites. Other potential solutions under discussion at the Commission include introducing a handling fee for e-commerce platforms and implementing a digital product passport, which may provide supply chain transparency through a QR code linked to detailed product information.The EU is in the process of reviewing stricter rules and the elimination of the €150 de minimis customs duty exemption. But as the US has already closed its equivalent in May, there's a risk that the e-commerce players now exploit Europe as a dumping ground while it's still possible. 'We're often not as quick as Donald Trump,' Kluttig said. 'We can't issue executive orders that apply immediately and across all of Europe. We have different elaborate and complex legal processes. Which is important — but decisions take longer.'Similar conversations are going on in the UK, where the de minimis threshold is £135, and where industry groups have long argued that online retailers selling Chinese goods are undercutting local companies by skirting duties and safety checks. Exports of 'low-value' parcels from China to the UK rose 53% in April, according to an analysis of China's customs trade database.Parcels under the £135 threshold generally pass through customs with limited inspection. In research published in October 2024, the British Toy and Hobby Association found 85% of the 75 toys it tested from third party sellers on 11 marketplaces, were non-compliant with EU and UK safety standards.'It's difficult enough to pay all the taxes that we do without facing competition from people who pay none, particularly when they're supplying goods that are demonstrably not up to UK safety standards,' said Andrew Goodacre, chief executive officer of Teal Group, which owns toy retailer The Entertainer.A Temu spokesperson said that the company takes product safety seriously, with 'a robust seller onboarding process, regular monitoring, and enforcement actions to ensure compliance,' and that it works with testing and certification agencies. 'We are committed to fair competition and supporting local businesses,' the spokesperson said. 'Our platform allows European and UK-based sellers to reach new customers through a low-cost channel, with half of our UK sales expected to come from local sellers and warehouses by the end of 2025. We're expanding this model across Europe, aiming for 80% of our European sales to come from local sellers over time.'A Shein spokesperson said that the company is 'fully committed to ensuring the products we offer are safe and compliant,' and that it is investing $15 million this year in product safety and compliance initiatives, performing 2.5 million product safety and quality tests, and expanding its partnerships with testing agencies.AliExpress did not respond to a request for comment.Britain has taken action in recent years. Responsibility for collecting VAT has been shifted onto platforms, as sellers are now required to collect the tax upfront when dispatching parcels. Ollie Marshall, managing director of online electronics retailer Maplin, said that this has lessened competition and led 'Chinese direct sellers on platforms like Amazon actually becoming less prevalent.'However, just as in the EU, the US' dropping of its de minimis rule has increased fears of goods being rerouted and dumped in the UK. The Labour government announced a review of its policy in late April.So far, retailers and trade groups say there isn't much evidence that dumping is happening. Martino Pessina, CEO of Takko Fashion , a German discount clothing chain, said he's actually found short-term benefits from the US policy changes, as the temporary slowing of US demand has meant he's getting more favorable pricing from his own suppliers in China.This speaks to a point that isn't always reflected in the arguments over de minimis rules and the threat of dumped goods via Chinese platforms. 'We already buy in our local stores in the UK and the EU cheap Chinese goods, it's the same goods, often made in the same place,' Anna Jerzewska, customs and trade adviser to the EU and the UK, and director of consultancy Trade & Borders, said. Safety concerns are valid, as is the need to have a level playing field on regulations, she said, 'but the cheap Chinese goods isn't the problem. It's the profits of the UK retailers or the EU retailers.'Chinese online platforms are unlikely to see the increasing regulatory complexity in developed economies as an insurmountable barrier, according to Mark Greeven, dean of Asia at IMD Business School. The companies are expanding their warehouse capacity in Europe, he said, and Temu has begun to explore different business models, including working with small businesses in European markets. In April, the company signed a memorandum of understanding with DHL to develop its logistics on the continent.'Part of their advantage which they had in the US, they're trying to transplant to Europe, but they're also reinventing themselves a bit,' Greeven said.It will be challenging to build in Europe the 'proximity with the consumer' that the platforms have achieved in the US, he said, and their model of ultra-low price, algorithmically-marketed products may need to change. It could take a year or more to figure out how to navigate tariffs and tailor their offering to European markets.But the expertise that the Chinese platforms have built in logistics and supply chains means that they are powerful, highly adaptable businesses that will be hard to regulate out of existence, because they've dealt with constant disruption throughout their existence.'It's been round after round after round, and I think they got pretty good at focusing on their core capabilities,' Greeven said. 'It's a mess, but a mess is an opportunity from the point of view of Chinese entrepreneurs. I think that typically in this situation, Chinese companies prosper because they're not afraid of it, they're used to it.'The future of the US tariff regime is uncertain. In late May, a court ruled that the Trump administration's import taxes were illegal. The government has appealed.For the merchants, the timing of any short-term shift to Europe will be dictated by the simple metric of the US tariff numbers, Wang, from the Shenzhen Cross-border E-commerce Association said. When tariffs were set at 54%, that was the point most exporters couldn't make a profit, he said.'Before reaching that level, people were struggling with thinner profits, but would rather stay in the US for cash flows and meanwhile start doing research on new markets,' Wang said. 'But let's say the tariffs return to figures higher than that again, you'll just be forced to completely exit and jump to other markets as you'll die faster if you stay.'

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