Irish Examiner view: There is no endgame in Iran-US conflict
Those of us who awoke to notifications of the American attack on Iranian nuclear sites must be forgiven the sense of creeping dread that the blaze lit by Israel's strikes is about to become a forest fire.
Donald Trump — who ordered the attacks without congressional approval and campaigned on keeping America out of wars — seems to think this single big-stick action will be sufficient, saying 'now is the time for peace'.
He has already called for Iran's 'unconditional surrender' in the face of Israel's military actions. However, with his rambling speeches and moments of confusion having given rise to concerns about the sort of deteriorating mental capabilities he would have accused Joe Biden of demonstrating, alongside an increasingly incoherent approach to foreign policy (he was the one who withdrew from Obama's nuclear agreement with Iran in the first place), he is capable of anything at any time.
Let us be clear that Europe, Israel, and the US have valid reasons to be concerned about Iran's potential to build a nuclear weapon. It has funded and armed proxies across the Middle East, and the country's human rights violations at home are egregious.
However, even Trump's own director of intelligence said Iran was not close to building a nuclear bomb — though when told this during a doorstep interview, he simply said she was wrong. How do you tackle that sort of wilful ignorance?
It cannot be surprising that Iran has ruled out diplomacy for the time being, given that its ministers have said it was engaging in diplomacy when it was attacked by Israel. The door is not locked, just shut gently for now.
Jaw-jaw may be better than war-war, but it requires both sides to engage.
That we are now looking at escalation across the Middle East, where the US has 40,000 troops and myriad business and military interests, seems especially depressing given that Iran claims to have largely evacuated the targeted nuclear sites before they were hit. So bringing in the big guns may have been for nought but carnage. The art of the deal indeed.
In the era of drone and cyberwarfare, brute force attacks seem almost a throwback or a relic, though they are still effective.
But, given that Ukraine has shown how a smaller, nimbler force powered by modern tech can outwit bigger forces, what's to stop Iran doing something similar — and on a longer timescale than just an immediate retaliation?
The only thing for certain is that we are not near the endgame, whether that be measured in days, weeks, or years.
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Irish Examiner
an hour ago
- Irish Examiner
Iran launches missiles and drones at Israel in the wake of US strikes
Iran has fired a salvo of missiles and drones at Israel while warning the United States that its military has been given a 'free hand' to attack American targets in the wake of the Trump administration's massive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Israel said its defence systems were operating to intercept the threat, which apparently targeted north and central areas, and told people to head to shelters. Iran described the attack a new wave of its Operation 'True Promise 3', saying it was targeting the Israeli cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv, according to Iranian state television. There were no immediate reports of damage. The move came after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites (Iranian Army Press Service via AP) The attack came the day after the United States inserted itself into Israel's war by attacking Iranian nuclear sites, prompting fears of a wider regional conflict. Iran said the US had crossed 'a very big red line' with its risky gambit to strike the three sites with missiles and 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs. On Monday, Iranian Gen Abdolrahim Mousavi, the chief of joint staff of armed forces, warned Washington its strikes had given Iranian forces a 'free hand ' to 'act against US interests and its army'. Gen Mousavi described the American attack as violating Iran's sovereignty and being tantamount to invading the country, the state-run IRNA news agency reported. In the wake of the American attacks on Iran, calls came from across the globe for de-escalation and the return to diplomacy to try and resolve the conflict. Foreign ministers remain focused on a diplomatic solution, but concerns about the war escalating are high. Any Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be extremely dangerous. My doorstep ahead of today's Foreign Affairs Council ↓ — Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) June 23, 2025 On Monday, the European Union's top diplomat said the bloc remained 'very much focused on the diplomatic solution'. 'The concerns of retaliation and this war escalating are huge,' Kaja Kallas said at the start of a foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels where Iran has jumped to the top of the agenda. 'Especially closing of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is something that would be extremely dangerous and not good for anybody,' Ms Kallas said, referring to a maritime route crucial for oil transport. After Sunday's attacks, Iranian officials repeated their longstanding threats of possibly closing the key shipping lane. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin, one of Iran's key allies, in Moscow.
Extra.ie
an hour ago
- Extra.ie
World is braced for Iran terror backlash
Iran's nuclear ambitions have been 'totally obliterated' by the surprise US strikes, Donald Trump said on Sunday night. The American president said the attack by a squadron of stealth bombers late on Saturday night had 'taken the bomb right out of [Tehran's] hands'. But there are fears that the US's allies could face a terror backlash from the regime's supporters. Seven B-2 stealth bombers swept into Iranian airspace undetected, dropping 14 'bunker-buster' bombs on nuclear facilities as the US joined Israel in the biggest Western military action against the Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution. US vice president JD Vance and US president Donald Trump. Pic: Daniel Torok/The White House via Getty Images Experts warned of a 'new era of terrorism' and US vice president JD Vance said the FBI and law enforcement were on alert for threats on American soil. In an address to the nation as the B-2s were flying home, Mr Trump said: 'Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's number-one state sponsor of terror. 'Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier.' Ayatollah Khamenei. Pic: Iranian Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images Mr Trump boasted that America had 'taken the bomb right out of their hands (and they would use it if they could!)', while his secretary of state Marco Rubio claimed the US had offered Iran a civil nuclear programme but 'they rejected it'. Mr Rubio added: 'They played us. They wouldn't respond to our offers. They disappeared for ten days. 'The president had to take action as a response. We are not declaring war on Iran. We're not looking for war in Iran. But if they attack us, I think we have the capabilities they haven't even seen yet.' On Sunday night, despite widespread calls to de-escalate, Iran president Masoud Pezeshkian said the US 'must receive a response for their aggression'. And a senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, warned that 'there will no longer be any place for the presence of the United States and its bases' in the region. US president Donald Trump, US defence secretary Pete Hegseth and US secretary of state Marco Rubio. Pic: Daniel Torok/The White House via Getty Images Abbas Araghaci, Iran's foreign minister, who described the US government as 'lawless and warmongering', is expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow today to discuss how to respond. On Sunday night, the head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog said Iran's Natanz enrichment site was 'completely destroyed'. The extent of the damage at the Fordow site, built into a mountainside and reinforced with layers of concrete, is unclear. Discussing Fordow, Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said: 'There are clear indications of impacts. But, as for the assessment for the degree of damage underground… no one could tell you how much it has been damaged. One cannot exclude that there is significant damage there.' Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Simon Harris both called for an 'urgent' de-escalation and a negotiated solution on Iran's nuclear facilities. They said they are in close contact with their European counterparts before a meeting of EU foreign leaders today and of EU leaders later in the week. 'Diplomacy and dialogue is ultimately the only way to resolve these issues,' Mr Martin said. Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Simon Harris. Pic: Sasko Lazarov/ UK prime minister Keir Starmer and President Trump discussed the need for Iran to return to the negotiating table in a phone call last night, Downing Street said. A spokesman said: 'The leaders discussed the situation in the Middle East and reiterated the grave risk posed by Iran's nuclear programme to international security. They discussed the actions taken by the United States to reduce the threat and agreed that Iran must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. 'They discussed the need for Iran to return to the negotiating table as soon as possible. They agreed to stay in close contact in the coming days.' Speaking after the US strikes, UK business secretary Jonathan Reynolds told Sky News that the risk from Iran in the UK was 'not hypothetical'. He said: 'There is not a week goes by without some sort of Iranian cyber attack on a key part of the UK's critical national infrastructure. There is Iranian activity on the streets of the UK, which is wholly unacceptable. 'It's already at a significant level. I think it would be naive to say that that wouldn't potentially increase.' The UK was informed of the mission, codenamed Operation Midnight Hammer, but played no part. Mr Reynolds last night warned that Iranian activity in the UK was already substantial, and that it was 'naive' to think it won't escalate. A statement of the E3 group, with the UK alongside France and Germany, said: 'We call upon Iran to engage in negotiations leading to an agreement that addresses all concerns associated with its nuclear programme. We stand ready to contribute to that goal in coordination with all parties. 'We urge Iran not to take any further action that could destabilise the region.' However, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for world trade and oil transit.
Irish Times
an hour ago
- Irish Times
Did Iran move its uranium? Opinions split on fate of 400kg stockpile
The fate of Iran 's nuclear programme, and attempts by the US and Israel to destroy it, could hang on the Islamic republic's more than 400kg of uranium enriched to levels just short of weapons-grade. After US stealth bombers dropped huge 30,000lb bunker-buster bombs on Iran's main nuclear sites, Donald Trump claimed the 'key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated'. There is little doubt that the sites Tehran has been using to produce highly enriched uranium – Natanz and Fordow – have suffered severe damage. A third site in Isfahan, used in the fuel cycle but also for storage, was hit by Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from an American submarine. But as the Trump administration conducts its damage assessment, the critical question will be whether Iran's programme has been destroyed, or simply pushed into smaller, secret facilities that are harder to find. READ MORE The answer depends significantly on what has happened to Iran's 408kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity – approaching the 90 per cent purity required for weapons. 'It comes down to the material and where it is,' said Richard Nephew, a former senior US official who worked on Iran in the Obama and Biden administrations. 'On the basis of what we've seen at this point, we don't know where the material is. We don't have any real confidence that we've got the ability to get it any time soon.' 'I think you would be foolish,' he added, 'if you said that the programme was delayed by anything more than a few months.' [ Live updates: Trump hints at Iran regime change after US attacks on nuclear sites Opens in new window ] Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, said 'no one will know for sure for days' whether Iran attempted or was able to move highly enriched uranium. 'I doubt they moved it, because you really can't move anything right now,' he told CBS. 'The minute a truck starts driving somewhere, the Israelis have seen it, and they've targeted it and taken it out.' But an Iranian regime insider said it would have been 'very naive to keep our enriched uranium in those sites', adding: 'The enriched uranium is untouched now.' He added that Iran – which has always insisted its programme is for peaceful, civilian purposes – would not seek to weaponise its programme. As hostilities with Israel have intensified, other Iranian officials have hinted that Tehran could look to alter its nuclear doctrine. Analysts have warned Tehran could rush to develop a bomb using clandestine facilities if it becomes desperate and feels the need to restore its deterrent. Ali Shamkhani, senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said the country's nuclear abilities remained steadfast. 'Even if nuclear sites are destroyed, [the] game isn't over,' he wrote on X. 'Enriched materials, indigenous knowledge, political will remain,' said Shamkhani, who was reported to have been wounded in Israel's first round of strikes more than a week ago. The highly enriched uranium had been held at Natanz, in central Iran; Fordow, the main enrichment facility dug deep into a mountain near the holy city of Qom; and in tunnels at the Isfahan site, Nephew said. Once cooled, it is stored in powder form in large cylinders similar to a water heater. A protest following US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Tehran on Sunday. Photograph: Arash Khamooshi/The New York Times The stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent – part of an overall stockpile of more than 8,400kg, the majority of it low-level purity – meant Tehran had the capacity to produce sufficient fissile material required for several nuclear bombs within days if it chose. But the actual weaponisation process would be expected to take months or a year, experts said. The risk was always that after Israel launched its bombing campaign on the pretext of destroying Tehran's nuclear programme, Iran would secretly take the stockpile to hidden locations, where advanced centrifuges had been covertly set up. Nephew said the 'unknowns here are killing us a little bit'. 'If they've got a uranium conversion line set up ... and if they were able to enrich up to 90 per cent at Fordow before it was attacked, and they had eight or nine days, that's potentially enough for two bombs' worth of 90 per cent,' he said. India, Pakistan and North Korea all successfully developed covert nuclear weapons programmes despite onerous surveillance and restrictions from the US. [ US-Iran: What comes next after Donald Trump's risky foreign policy move? Opens in new window ] Sima Shine, a former Iran specialist at Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, said she was convinced Iran had moved enriched material. 'They have enough enriched uranium somewhere, and they took some advanced centrifuges somewhere, in order to enable them to some day go to a nuclear device,' Shine said. 'The programme is not destroyed completely, no matter what the Americans say.' One Israeli official said that if Tehran and Washington resumed talks on allowing Iran to have a peaceful nuclear energy programme, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu might insist Tehran hand over any highly enriched uranium to be transported and stored outside the country. A second official acknowledged that Iran could have spirited away at least some of its highly enriched stockpile. But the officials added that after Israel last week assassinated at least 11 Iranian nuclear scientists, the regime would struggle to create an 'efficient, miniaturised nuclear weapon'. The International Atomic Energy Agency has inspectors in the republic who frequently visit Fordow, Natanz and other declared facilities. But Israel's bombing campaign put a halt to those inspections. Even before the strikes, the UN nuclear watchdog lacked oversight over all of the thousands of advanced centrifuges Iran developed after Trump in his first term pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal that severely restricted Tehran's activity. Iran's co-operation with the IAEA had also severely deteriorated in recent years, impeding the agency's ability to conduct inspections to the level agreed in the 2015 agreement. After Iran was censured in an IAEA resolution, days before Israel launched its attack, Iran also revealed that it had built a previously undeclared enrichment facility – the country's third. Israel targeted the Natanz facility on the first day of its strikes and has hit it again, causing damage to its overground and underground plants, the IAEA said last week. Israel also hit the Isfahan site twice. But it lacked the military capacity to cause significant damage to Fordow and waited for the US's intervention. 'It's certainly the end of the Iranian nuclear programme as we knew it,' said Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at Crisis Group. 'If the programme survives, it'll either become a clandestine weapons programme or, in case of a deal, a neutered civilian programme without access to nuclear fuel cycle technology.' – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025
