Rakuten Trade lowers FBM KLCI 2025 target to 1,630 amid earnings downgrade
Bursa Malaysia building in Bukit Kewangan, KL on October 29.—AZMAN GHANI/The Star
KUALA LUMPUR: Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd has revised its year-end target for the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) to 1,630 from its earlier projection of 1,730, in line with the recent downgrades in corporate earnings, said its head of research Kenny Yee Shen Pin.
He noted that foreign investors have yet to return to Malaysian equities, despite attractive valuations across Southeast Asian markets, further weighing on the overall market sentiment.
"In view of the short-term stance among foreign funds, coupled with recent earnings downgrades, we have lowered our 2025 target for the FBM KLCI to the 1,630 level, based on a 16.0 times price-to-earnings ratio (PER) for the calendar year 2025 ' he said during a webinar today.
He noted that at present, the FBM KLCI is trading at a PER of between 12 and 13 times, which remains below both its historical average and valuations of regional peers. He described foreign fund flows as "disappointing' after recording net outflows of RM4 billion in 2024, with the situation deteriorating further this year with net foreign outflows reaching RM11.2 billion so far.
"This level (of foreign outflows) is quite perplexing, especially since Malaysia is quite steady both fundamentally and politically, yet we are seeing a diminishing foreign interest in the local market,' he said. He added that non-US-based funds are expected to gradually reduce their exposure to the US markets and shift their focus back to Asia, which could support a rebound in foreign fund inflows in the near term.
Notwithstanding the massive foreign outflows, Yee highlighted that foreign shareholding in the local bourse surprising remains decent at 19.44 per cent as of June 2025.
"We can only deduce that long-term foreign investors may be returning, while the majority of those who exited were short-term participants. For now, the Hong Kong market will still be their primary destination,' he said.
Meanwhile, Yee projected that the US dollar will continue to weaken against the basket of major currencies, with the ringgit likely to strengthen to the 4.10-4.20 range by year-end, supported by the US recessionary concerns that could trigger interest rate cuts.
"As many of you know, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has already dropped by 10 per cent year-to-date against major currencies. Hence, moving forward, many expect the dollar index to continue to weaken further --along the way, we may see the ringgit performing better against the US dollar,' he added.
On domestic policy, Yee proposed that the government take a measured approach to the rationalisation of RON95 fuel subsidies, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
"We may see only a partial rationalisation of RON95, depending on how high or how much crude oil prices go,' he suggested.
As of this morning, the ringgit traded higher at 4.2490/2700 against the US dollar, while the FBM KLCI climbed 0.22 per cent to 1,504.79 at lunch break. - Bernama
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Commentary: Growing Foreign Reserves And What it All Means
Malaysia's central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), recently reported an increase in its international reserves, reaching USD119.6 billion as of May 30, 2025, up from USD119.1 billion just two weeks earlier. This modest growth in foreign reserves signals positive developments in Malaysia's economy, reflecting its resilience in navigating global economic challenges. It highlights the country's ability to manage external pressures and provides a buffer against potential financial shocks. However, the key question remains: what does this mean for the everyday citizens? How can we interpret this trend as a sign of a strengthening economy, and how does it translate into tangible benefits for the people? Why Our Money Pile is Growing? One main reason our reserves are increasing is that Malaysia is selling more goods to other countries than it buys. For example, in April 2025, Malaysia sold RM10.5 billion more in goods than it bought, especially in electronics and gas. When we export a lot, more foreign money comes into the country. This extra foreign currency is then kept by BNM as part of its reserves. This shows Malaysia's strength in making and selling important products worldwide. Another big factor is that foreign investors are putting their money into Malaysian government bonds. These bonds offer better returns compared to those in countries like the U.S. or Japan, where interest rates might not be as good anymore. In May 2025 alone, foreign investors brought in RM2.6 billion. When these investors bring in foreign money and convert it to Ringgit to buy our bonds, it directly adds to BNM's foreign currency reserves. This trend highlights that investors trust Malaysia's economy. What This Extra Money Means for Malaysia? Having USD119.6 billion in reserves is a big deal. It means Malaysia has enough foreign money to pay for about 5 months of imported goods and services. This is well above the recommended 3 months by the IMF, a global financial body. This cushion helps Malaysia if import prices go up or if global trade faces problems. Also, these reserves are almost equal to our short-term foreign debts (0.9 times), showing that we don't rely too much on quick foreign loans to run our economy. This strong position makes us less vulnerable to sudden money outflows. Our reserves are also made up of different types of assets, which gives BNM more flexibility. Most of it, USD106.4 billion, is in foreign currencies. We also have USD5.8 billion in Special Drawing Rights (a type of international money from the IMF) and USD3.8 billion in gold. Having this mix of assets helps BNM act fast if there's a global money crisis or if a lot of foreign money suddenly leaves the country. It means BNM has many options to handle financial pressures. Impact on the Ringgit and Economic Policy This steady increase in our foreign reserves suggests that the Malaysian Ringgit might become more stable after being a bit weak. When investors worldwide see Malaysia has strong reserves and can attract foreign money, it makes them see Malaysia as a safe and attractive place among growing economies. This improved perception could boost confidence in the Ringgit, making its value more steady and potentially stronger against other major currencies. If our reserves keep growing, it means BNM will have more room to make decisions about our economy. For instance, BNM might be able to slightly lower interest rates if needed, without worrying too much about the Ringgit losing value or losing trust from investors. This flexibility is very important in today's uncertain global economy, allowing BNM to support Malaysia's economic growth without risking financial stability. Our 'Economic Shield' in a Shaky World Essentially, this rise in Malaysia's international reserves is more than just a number. It's a vital 'economic shield' that gives Malaysia significant power and freedom in managing its money and economy. In a world full of unclear interest rates, political tensions, and unpredictable supply chains, having a big financial buffer is extremely important. This 'shield' helps Malaysia handle unexpected global problems, like a sudden economic slowdown or a quick exit of foreign money, by lessening their impact. It also keeps investors confident, as they know BNM has the resources to protect the Ringgit and keep the financial system stable. Plus, strong reserves allow BNM to support economic growth when necessary, without being held back by a weak financial position. Overall, these strong reserves show Malaysia's smart economic planning and its ability to deal with global financial challenges. Conclusion As a conclusion, the growth in Malaysia's international reserves to USD119.6 billion is unequivocally a positive signal, extending beyond mere financial figures. For the average Malaysian, this translates into tangible benefits, a more stable Ringgit means greater purchasing power for imports and overseas travel, while reduced inflation helps stretch household budgets. Furthermore, these robust reserves act as a crucial national safety net, safeguarding jobs and businesses during global uncertainties and bolstering confidence in our financial system. Ultimately, this increased 'economic shield' empowers BNM to maintain stability and foster sustainable growth, directly enhancing the economic well-being and security of all Malaysians in a volatile global landscape. By Dr. Shahrul Azman Abd Razak Researcher and Islamic Finance Consultant Kuala Nerang, Kedah Related
