In China's backyard, steel buyer Vietnam tries to stem tide of cheap metal

It's 8am and already sweltering at the Pomina Flat Steel JSC plant outside Ho Chi Minh City, as the night shift's last pour of molten metal is shaped, cooled and cut into rods. Down the road, at a Vietnam Steel Corp facility, a long strip is uncoiled into an acid bath and fed through a powerful press, making it thinner but tougher.
Once finished, these batches of metal will be sold into one of the fastest-growing steel markets in the world. Output could grow as much as 10 per cent this year, according to the Vietnam Steel Association. Demand could reach as much as 25 million tonnes, up around 5 per cent on last year — even as, to the north, China's far larger steel industry struggles with oversupply and the impact of a protracted property crisis.
The Southeast Asian nation's economic awakening and fast expansion has been a boon for the likes of Pomina and state-controlled heavyweight VNSteel, which run these two factories. But like steelmakers worldwide, they are now feeling the impact of seismic changes in global trade — and find themselves sitting on an uncomfortable fault line, caught between a global pushback against cheap steel and other exports, and punitive US tariffs that target manufacturing economies like Vietnam's.
'We now have to factor in new forces, geopolitical risks that are reshaping global steel chains,' Jiang Li, a veteran analyst at Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., the listed unit of giant China Baowu Steel Group, said at the Kallanish Asia Steel Markets Conference earlier this month. 'The world is shifting from decades of globalisation to a more fragmented deglobalised environment,' Jiang told the gathering in Ho Chi Minh City, where uncertainty dominated nearly every conversation.
Vietnam's metal industry has grown to meet the needs of a country that is rapidly building out manufacturing capacity, metro networks, highways and new airports, along with most of Southeast Asia.
But it stands out from its neighbours as the single largest importer of Chinese steel — an easy, cost-sensitive destination for producers from just over the border, as they struggle with slow growth at home and a dwindling number of available overseas markets. The imports into Vietnam hit a record last year, thanks to a particularly strong first half and Chinese supplies have risen by nearly 500 per cent since 2020.
In February, under pressure from local producers, Vietnam finally took action. It imposed tariffs of up to around 28 per cent on hot-rolled coils, used in everything from infrastructure and consumer goods. It has since added another levy, of more than 37 per cent, on galvanised steel imports from China. These are formally temporary — but could become permanent.
As more countries introduce or plan tariffs, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated earlier this month that about 50 per cent of China's steel exports are now exposed — a hit that could drag Chinese exports down by as much as 14 per cent this year.
For Vietnamese producers, the anti-dumping measures against China have levelled the playing field, according to Vu Tran, a former regional head of steel trading at global commodities giant Cargill Inc. 'With Chinese producers no longer able to undercut on price, Vietnamese mills now compete well on cost,' he said.
In much of the region, this fight is something of a novelty. During an earlier surge of Chinese steel exports in 2015-2016, a lot of China's supplies also ended up here. But now countries from Vietnam to Indonesia and Malaysia have large, developed domestic steel industries — and domestic markets to defend.
Conditions overseas are also far more brutal. That includes the impact of a cascade of punitive tariffs unleashed by Washington over recent weeks, including steel-specific tariffs imposed in March, but also barriers erected by other nations, seeking to stop flows from inexpensive exporters like those in Southeast Asia. When India laid out the case for safeguard measures on steel imports, it mentioned the threat posed by rising volumes from Vietnam, which is now a net exporter to the country, as well as growing capacity in the vicinity.
At home, there is 'intense' competition when it comes to price and market share, said Le Minh Tu, a director at the marketing and planning department of VNSteel. All the while, 'unpredictable tariff policies from the US government, along with a global wave of trade protectionism, are having a substantial impact on export activities.'
Hanoi is now in a diplomatic whirlwind. When US President Donald Trump imposed 'reciprocal' tariffs on scores of countries — before a later, temporary, climbdown to 10 per cent — Vietnam was among the worst hit, with a 46 per cent levy. It was also among the first governments to dispatch a team to Washington for negotiations.
Immediately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, as part of a regional tour to shore up diplomatic ties in the region. Days later, Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said his nation had a 'unique bond' with the US.
"Vietnam is the classic example of being torn between two lovers," said Hoang Thi Ha, a senior fellow at ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, pointing out the US is a key export market for the country, but China is vital for imports.
"It's something not only Vietnam, but also many other Southeast Asian economies are facing now. The US not only wants to decouple itself from China but it wants the rest of the world to do so too."
But even as global scrutiny intensifies around steel — a metal seen as the backbone for industrial development and national ambition — Vietnam's industry is adapting.
'They have to deal with Trump tariffs, they have to deal with competition with Chinese steel in global markets,' said Vy Nguyen, an analyst at Vietcap Securities JSC. 'There are a lot of difficulties.'
That can mean more than gloom, even in the face of overcapacity.
Hoa Phat Group JSC, the country's biggest steelmaker, has its new Dung Quat 2 Iron and Steel Production Complex coming online this year, adding 5.6 million tons of hot-rolled coil annually to local supply. According to CRU Group's research, the facility will reduce Vietnam's average production costs for the product by 11 per cent in 2025 compared to last year, making it even more competitive and giving it another boost in the battle to fend off Chinese imports — or to reach new export markets, even with levies.
Trump's global tariff campaign has widened the number of countries feeling the pain of trade barriers, leaving Vietnam less isolated.
'Vietnam is now in a better position than, say, Canada,' said Shankhadeep Mukherjee, an analyst at CRU Group, pointing to Washington's removal of exemptions for certain countries and a lingering relative advantage. 'That means Vietnam can earn wider margins while lowering prices just enough to outcompete Canada.'
Back at the VNSteel plant, steel sheets are rolling off the production line in a thinner, more polished form — cold-rolled coil used in everything from cars to appliances. Lined up in fat rolls, the metal will soon be ready to be shipped out, across the country and beyond. One roll is labelled and ready to be sent to Indonesia.
As domestic capacity grows and competition cranks up, more will follow that same path.
'Going out and finding new markets or expanding alternative markets is all the more important now that tariffs are spreading — oversupply requires an export market, no matter what,' said Tomas Gutierrez, an analyst at consultancy Kallanish Commodities Ltd.

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