High Point MX betting, predictions, odds, picks, lines: Aaron Plessinger is a compelling dark horse
Jett Lawrence's betting odds are becoming increasingly prohibitive after scoring overall wins in the first three rounds of the 2025 Pro Motocross season on the strength of five moto wins in six starts. In terms of overall victories, he's won all but one round he's entered. The result is that his raw opening odds are -353 for the outright win this week and -2400 to stand on the overall podium.
One would be hard-pressed to quibble over those odds, but there were signs that several riders in the field closed the competition gap in Colorado last week. Aaron Plessinger briefly passed Jett for the lead in the second half of Moto 1, Jett did not take the lead in Moto 2 until the halfway point, and Eli Tomac closed the distance on him for several laps. If either of those riders eliminates mistakes in the next few races while Jett is still recuperating from his torn ACL, bettors could have a profitable day.
If Jett can be beaten, it could lead to a snowball effect.
Short of an injury, it seems unlikely that anyone will be able to consistently finish ahead of Jett in the final eight rounds of competition, and that is reflected in his championship odds of -757. Jett currently has a points lead equivalent to one full moto (25 points), which translates to 1.6 points per moto over the next 16 races.
But Jett did suffer an injury last year that kept him from winning the championship, so bettors need to pay attention to the championship odds for his closest rivals. Tomac's line expanded from +381 entering the Thunder Valley Nationals in Lakewood, Colorado, to +511 this week. The remainder of the field is more than 11/1 to take the title.
Tomac (+274) remains the most likely rider to beat Jett for an overall win. He's riding well enough this season to change his mind about retirement, and rumors were all but confirmed last week in the post-race news conference that he will move from Yamaha to KTM as a teammate to Plessinger and Chase Sexton in 2026 (to clear the way for Haiden Deegan to graduate into the 450 class). Unfortunately, Jett's supremacy is so great that it forces riders into mistakes. Tomac rushed a corner in Moto 2 of the Thunder Valley Nationals while attempting to catch Jett and crashed.
Plessinger (+1900) is brimming with confidence. When he says it's only a matter of time before he scores an overall win, one cannot help but realize he fully believes it. Plessinger has come tantalizingly close to winning his first 450 moto twice in three rounds. When he ticks that off his wish list, he could conceivably win the overall in the same round. He's worth modest bets each until he ends his streak of moto top-fives.
Hunter Lawrence (+862) has lower odds than Plessinger, despite not being as consistently fast. Hunter is scoring overall top-fives with consistency that adds points to his total without making him a serious threat to win the overall. Sleep on Hunter until he begins challenging for moto podiums again.
Given their relative performances, Plessinger and Hunter have been matched up in a head-to-head wager. Hunter is favored at -121, while Plessinger is practically even money at -109.
Opening Odds, Outright Overall Win
Jett Lawrence, -353
Eli Tomac, +274
Hunter Lawrence, +862
Aaron Plessinger, +1900
Justin Cooper, +3233
Cooper Webb, +6111
Jorge Prado, +9900
Jason Anderson, +12400
Joey Savatgy, +12400
RJ Hampshire, +13058
Harri Kullas, +13058
Malcolm Stewart, +13058
Benny Bloss, +13058
Bryson Gardner, +14393
Derek Drake, +14393
Romain Pape, +14393
Derek Kelley, +14393
Colt Nichols, +14393
Bryce Shelly, +14606
Brandon Ray, +14606
Opening Odds, Overall Podium
Jett Lawrence, -2400
Eli Tomac, -233
Hunter Lawrence, -122
Aaron Plessinger, -110
Justin Cooper, +100
Cooper Webb, +164
Jason Anderson, +177
Jorge Prado, +550
Joey Savatgy, +774
RJ Hampshire, +841
Malcolm Stewart, +993
Harri Kullas, +4018
Benny Bloss, +4185
Derek Drake, +4185
Romain Pape, +4185
Derek Kelley, +4185
Colt Nichols, +4185
Bryce Shelly, +4185
Brandon Ray, +4185
Bryson Gardner, +4185
More SuperMotocross News
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Thunder Valley 450 Results | 250 Results
Lachlan Turner wins WMX Thunder Valley
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Jett Lawrence sweeps Thunder valley
Chance Hymas ends Deegan's perfect season, winning Moto 1
Jett Lawrence wins Moto 1, pressured by Aaron Plessinger
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Thunder Valley 450 Quals | 250 Quals
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