The prospect of a wider war
The Iran-Israel clashes have reached a breakpoint with the prospect of the US entering the fray. On Thursday, a White House spokesperson said President Donald Trump would take the call on this 'within the next two weeks' though many analysts expect Washington to bomb Fordow, Iran's nuclear facility, which appears to be beyond the reach of Tel Aviv, very soon, perhaps even the weekend. Parallelly, the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Britain and the European Union are talking with Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi to explore a ceasefire. Europe, though, has been reduced to a marginal player since Trump in 2018 ended a deal that was negotiated with Tehran in 2015. It is clear Trump holds the keys to what threatens to become a wider conflict and reshape power relations in West Asia. If Tel Aviv and Washington pursue an endgame that stops only with regime change in Tehran, it may lead to tumultuous changes in the region. (AP)
As it launched the attack on Iran last weekend, Israel cited the International Atomic Energy Agency's censure of Tehran for failing to provide information about undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple locations. Since then, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has widened his goals to a regime change in Tehran and the elimination of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reports suggested that the US vetoed the move. Iran, meanwhile, has warned that it will retaliate if the US becomes an active participant in the conflict.
President Trump doesn't like wars; during the campaign, he promised to cease America's participation in global conflicts and work to negotiate peace in Ukraine and Gaza. Trump's peace efforts in both are in shambles and he now has to deal with Iran, not a scenario he planned for. A reasonable achievement for him will be to negotiate a rollback of Iran's nuclear plans and end the conflict. That will enhance his credentials as a peacemaker and reaffirm the US's pre-eminence as a global power, especially since this round of conflict in West Asia has exposed the limits of Chinese and Russian influence in the region: Despite being allies of Tehran, Moscow and Beijing have restricted their involvement in the conflict to statements condemning Tel Aviv's actions. Israel may have to be satisfied with a diminished Iran and its reiteration as the region's unquestioned hegemon.
However, if Tel Aviv and Washington pursue an endgame that stops only with regime change in Tehran, it may lead to tumultuous changes in the region. First, the Ayatollah is the face of the Islamist regime that captured office in Tehran in 1979 when mass mobilisations forced the Shah of Iran, backed by the West, to abdicate. The Islamists have been challenged by street protests in recent years, but these sections may not necessarily back a regime change orchestrated by the US and Israel. People tend to rally around the flag in times of war. Second, lessons from Iraq suggest that change forced by outside forces can lead to anarchy. Iran is a civilisational State, but its theocratic regime is the glue that holds together multiple regions and ethnicities. Three, Iran's mostly Sunni neighbourhood has perceived the Shia State as a regional hegemon and will surely prefer a weakened Tehran. But it is another matter if they want an unstable Iran in their backyard.
In the short run, chaos in West Asia will lead to a spike in oil prices, impact global trade, and slow down the world economy. India has major stakes in West Asia – Iran is a key trading partner and a port of entry to Central Asia, and the Gulf nations are crucial for Delhi's fuel needs and house a large expat population – and uncertainty in the region complicates its economic goals and power ambitions.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
17 minutes ago
- Time of India
Israel-Iran News Live Updates: Iran FM says ready to 'consider' diplomacy 'once the aggression is stopped'
US President Donald Trump claimed that the United States had taken "complete and total control of the skies over Iran." He further warned Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei saying that "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don't want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" The long-simmering tensions between Israel and Iran have exploded into open warfare since Friday, June 13, 2025, marking an unprecedented period of direct military confrontation. Israel initiated a major campaign of fighter jet and drone strikes across Iran, targeting nuclear and military sites, including surface-to-surface missile production facilities, detection radar sites, and surface-to-air missile launchers. Reports indicate strikes on residential areas and fuel depots, with Iran's health ministry reporting at least 224 fatalities and over 1,200 injuries, mostly civilians. Israeli forces have also reportedly killed several top Iranian military commanders and atomic scientists. The IDF claims to have destroyed one-third of Iran's surface-to-surface missile launchers and achieved "full air superiority over Tehran," also striking an Iranian refueling aircraft 2,300 km away. In retaliation, Tehran has launched barrages of missiles and drones, hitting Israeli cities and towns, causing at least 24 deaths and 592 injuries, with a major oil refinery in Haifa among the targets. The IDF confirmed intercepting over 100 Iranian UAVs. The international community, including China, Turkey, and G7 leaders, has urgently called for de-escalation, but both sides remain defiant. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserts the offensive aims to thwart "existential" nuclear and missile threats and has not ruled out targeting Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suggesting it would "end the conflict." The UN's IAEA reported physical damage to an above-ground component of Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility but normal external radiation levels, while warning of potential internal contamination. Amidst the crisis, planned nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington were called off.
Hindustan Times
18 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
First of 3 flights evacuating Indians from Iran's Mashhad lands in Delhi
The first of three chartered evacuation flights carrying Indian nationals from conflict-hit Iran arrived in Delhi late Friday night, following Iran's decision to ease airspace restrictions for the operation. Those on board had earlier been moved from Tehran to safer locations. Additional flights may be arranged in the coming days for others wanting to return to India, according to a senior Iranian diplomat. Those on board had earlier been moved from Tehran to safer locations. Additional flights may be arranged in the coming days for others wanting to return to India. (File)(Vipin Kumar/HT Photo) 'Iran's airspace is currently closed, but we're facilitating limited access for the safe evacuation of Indian nationals,' said Mohammad Javad Hosseini, deputy chief of mission at the Iranian embassy. Around 1,000 Indians, mostly students pursuing professional courses, were relocated from Tehran to Qom and then to Mashhad. These evacuees will be flown to Delhi on three Iranian-operated charter flights arranged by India, Hosseini said. Two more evacuation flights are set to arrive on Saturday. This evacuation is taking place as the Iran-Israel war enters its second week, following Israel's large-scale aerial offensive launched last week. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said he is considering joining Israel in the conflict and will make a decision within two weeks, leaving open the possibility of negotiations to end the hostilities. More evacuation flights to land on Saturday Sources familiar with the situation said that another flight is scheduled to bring back more Indian nationals who were earlier moved from Iran to Turkmenistan via a land route. This evacuation flight from Ashgabat is expected to arrive in New Delhi early Saturday morning. None of the evacuation flights are flying over Pakistani airspace. Hosseini noted that additional flights may be arranged in the coming days, including a possible one on Sunday, to help Indians wishing to return home. He added that the Iranian foreign ministry is coordinating closely with India's external affairs ministry and the Indian embassy in Tehran to ensure the safe evacuation of Indian citizens. 'We are arranging for the safe passage of Indians who want to [leave] via air or via road through third countries, or directly from Iran,' Hosseini said. A separate group of 110 Indian students, who had been relocated from Tehran to Qom and then taken to Armenia by land, reached Delhi on a flight from Yerevan on Thursday. At the time the hostilities began, triggered by Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites over the weekend, there were around 10,000 Indians in Iran—many of them students. India has not issued any formal advisories urging its citizens to leave Iran or Israel, but it has asked nationals in both countries to remain alert and limit their movement. Indian authorities have also recommended that citizens move out of Tehran. Hosseini said that all Indian nationals in Iran are safe, except for a few who sustained injuries when an Israeli airstrike struck a student dormitory in Tehran over the weekend. (With inputs from Rezaul Laskar)
Economic Times
18 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Putin warns about World War III, points to Ukraine war and Israel-Iran conflict Middle in East
Vladimir Putin expressed worry about a possible World War III. He cited conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Putin mentioned talks with Benjamin Netanyahu, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Donald Trump. He criticized Western dominance and promoted a balanced world order. Putin reiterated that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. He accused Kyiv of rejecting peace proposals and troop withdrawal. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that if regional conflicts are unresolved, it may lead to a global war while attending a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, on Friday, June 20, 2025. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Russian President Vladimir Putin raised serious concerns over a potential World War III during a key address at the 28th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). Speaking during a plenary session, Putin said rising regional tensions must not be taken lightly."It does concern me. There is no irony about it, this is no joke," Putin said, responding to a journalist who asked if he feared the world was heading toward pointed to several ongoing crises. He cited his own country's war against Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and recent attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran by Israel . 'These conflicts need serious attention and peaceful solutions,' he also revealed he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and US President Donald Trump. Putin said Russia had shared its vision for resolving the Iran-Israel crisis and hoped those proposals would be Russian leader criticized western dominance and said the world is undergoing a shift in power. "The G7's share of the global economy is shrinking. BRICS is growing. These are objective trends, and the changes they bring are inevitable," he said Russia and China were not forcing a new world order but were helping shape a more balanced one. 'It is rising naturally, like the sun,' he reiterated his claim that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. 'In that sense, all of Ukraine is ours,' he said. However, he added that Russia has never opposed any nation's desire for accused Kyiv of rejecting early peace proposals and said Ukraine refused to withdraw troops from disputed territories. 'From the outset, we urged Kiev to end the conflict. They refused,' Putin said.
