UAE's cross-border business horizon brightens, study shows
With 94 per cent of businesses projecting strong growth in cross-border activities despite looming tariff challenges, the UAE leads global trade optimism, according to HSBC's 2025 Global Trade Pulse Survey.
Conducted between April 30 and May 12, the survey of over 5,700 firms across 13 markets reveals UAE companies' remarkable resilience, outpacing global sentiment.
As geopolitical and tariff uncertainties ripple worldwide, UAE firms are leveraging advanced planning, digital innovation, and strategic market diversification to secure a prosperous future.
The UAE's buoyant outlook contrasts with global caution, where two-thirds of corporations report cost increases from tariff and trade uncertainties. While 65 per cent of UAE firms have faced similar cost pressures, with an average rise of seven per cent in operational expenses, they remain undeterred. A striking 76 per cent anticipate further cost hikes within six months, yet their confidence persists, driven by proactive strategies. The survey projects a 19 per cent revenue impact from tariffs on UAE businesses, slightly above the global average of 18 per cent, but firms are countering this with agility and foresight.
Deyana Cherneva, head of Global Trade Solutions for the Middle East, North Africa, and Türkiye at HSBC Bank Middle East, emphasised the UAE's strategic edge. 'The UAE corporates are well-prepared for the evolving trade landscape,' she said. 'By harnessing data analytics, strengthening supply chains, and deepening ties with key markets like the Middle East, China, and Europe, they are turning challenges into opportunities.'
Indeed, 75 per cent of UAE firms view trade uncertainty as a chance to innovate, with 48 per cent investing in data analytics, 42 per cent enhancing risk management, and 38 per cent improving supply chain visibility.
The UAE's trade optimism is underpinned by its strategic market connections. The survey identifies the UAE itself as the top sales market for 83 per cent of local firms, followed by India (34 per cent), the UK (32 per cent), the US (32 per cent), and Germany (19 per cent). For sourcing, 78 per cent of firms prioritize the UAE, with India (40 per cent), the US (39 per cent), the UK (32 per cent), and Germany (25 per cent) as key partners. Regional trade is a cornerstone, with 62 per cent of UAE companies boosting Middle East ties, alongside 47 per cent focusing on China and 43 per cent on Europe. This diversification aligns with the UAE's Vision 2030, which aims to elevate non-oil trade to Dh4 trillion by 2031, per government projections.
Additional data from the UAE Ministry of Economy highlights the emirates' trade momentum, with non-oil exports reaching Dh445 billion in 2024, a 12 per cent year-on-year increase. Free trade agreements, including those with India and the EU, have bolstered market access, while investments in digital infrastructure — such as Dubai's blockchain-based trade platforms — enhance efficiency. The UAE's logistics hub status, with Jebel Ali Port handling 14.5 million TEUs in 2024, further solidifies its global trade dominance.
Geopolitical shifts, a constant in global trade, are met with resilience by UAE businesses. The survey notes that 55 per cent of firms are exploring new markets to mitigate risks, with Southeast Asia and Africa emerging as growth frontiers. The UAE's economic diversification, with non-oil sectors contributing 73 per cent to GDP in 2024, supports this adaptability. Sectors like technology, renewable energy, and e-commerce are thriving, with the UAE's digital economy projected to grow by 15 per cent annually through 2030, according to Oxford Economics.
According to business analysts, while challenges like tariff costs and regulatory complexities persist, UAE businesses are undaunted. Their embrace of technology, strategic market expansion, and robust regional ties position them to lead globally, they added.
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