Former Australian Prime Minister Turnbull on Chinese Ownership of Darwin Port
Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull discusses Chinese ownership of the Port of Darwin in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Turnbull says "our assessment at the time was that this wasn't a security issue," but adds that the shifting geopolitical landscape means "there's a discomfort about a Chinese company owning port facilities" in the country. (Source: Bloomberg)
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What comes next? Iran − and its hard-line supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – are almost certainly going to strike back in response to historic U.S. military strikes on three of its suspected nuclear facilities. But if history is any guide, that response could happen at any time − and anywhere, and in any form, former U.S. intelligence officials and diplomatic experts say. 'Missiles, militias and acts of hostage-taking – that's their go-to' range of options, the Biden administration coordinator for the Middle East, Brett McGurk, said in an interview June 21 with CNN. 'I suspect Iran will have to do something.' More: Who is Iran's Supreme Leader? Like Trump, he controls a real-estate empire But like others wondering about Iran's intentions, McGurk said he has no idea what the Islamic regime's next step will be. 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'If you ask me, 'Is it possible?' Yes,' said Montgomery, a senior fellow at the McCrary Institute at Auburn University. 'Is it likely? Yes.' Much, if not all, of Iran's response will be dictated not by its civilian government but by Khamenei, the Iranian cleric who has served as the second supreme leader of Iran since 1989. Khameini is considered one of the longest-serving dictators in the world, who rules the oil-rich Islamic republic with an iron fist. But he's also a savvy politician who knows his regime 'may not survive the blowback' that a response would trigger, Sadjadpour said The U.S. intelligence community has, for years, made similar assessments. In its most recent annual assessment, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence concluded Tehran would continue to use its loose consortium of like-minded terrorist and militant actors, known as the 'Axis of Resistance,' against the U.S. and Israel. Although Iran has seen some of its proxies destroyed or degraded, 'these actors still represent a wide range of threats' that could be mobilized in a counterattack, the ODNI said. But the ODNI also concluded that Khamenei 'continues to desire to avoid embroiling Iran in an expanded, direct conflict with the United States and its allies.' Though Khamenei is not considered reckless, he has also painted himself into a corner by saying publicly that Tehran would never cave in to U.S. pressure. On June 18, he warned the United States that it would suffer 'irreparable damage' if it took military action against Iran amid its conflict with Israel. As a result, Sadjadpour said, 'his survival instincts and defiant instincts are in great tension now.' Iran's response undoubtedly will be hampered by lethal attacks on its military and proxy forces by Washington and Israel in recent years, beginning with the first Trump administration's targeted killing of Soleimani. Soleimani's death prompted 'real and specific threats' and assassination plots against Trump and former Trump administration officials on U.S. soil, including Bolton. More: Trump says US intel briefed him about how Iran wants to assassinate him to sow discord in US Tehran's regional power also has been eroded by the death of its strongest regional ally, Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad. Israel has decimated its most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, by a series of military strikes and assassinations. And Trump, since returning to office, has launched numerous military strikes on Yemen's Houthis. For now, the United States will be watching and waiting to see if Khameini and Iran decide to launch some kind of 'one-off' unilateral response, or a coordinated effort with – or through – one of those proxy groups – or a third, Hamas. 'We have to be ready for that,' McGurk said. Like others, McGurk said it's also possible that Iran will stand down and heed Trump's warning not to retaliate or face a potential regime-ending response. 'I hope that's where this goes,' McGurk said. 'We've got to be prepared for the worst while hoping and working for the best. … These next few days will be quite something. These are unprecedented times.' By 1 a.m. Washington time on June 22, Iran had already fired its first retaliatory missile, according to media reports citing the Israel Defense Forces. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Iran is likely to retaliate for U.S. strikes. But when, where and how?
