Why Gen Z and millennial voters could deliver unexpected election results
They're disillusioned, resentful and many suspect the system is rigged against them.
For the first time, Gen Z and millennial voters outnumber baby boomers at the federal election — and most of them aren't reaching the same milestones as their parents.
More than 7 million Australians
Political analysts say their grievances could deliver unexpected results in marginal seats.
A widening wealth gap
Paul Strangio, emeritus professor in politics at Monash University, said generational inequality could be driving "unpredictable" voting patterns among Gen Zs and millennials.
"They're not reaching the sort of milestones that previous generations did, such as home ownership, marrying [and] having children," Dr Strangio said.
"Those things used to predispose people to becoming more conservative in their outlook."
Stay updated:
Catch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on
Australia's birth rate recently
Photo shows
A woman holds a black dog overlooking the beach.
To understand why 30-somethings feel like they're struggling financially, the ABC analysed five factors — housing, healthcare, debt, tax, and income.
UNSW economics professor Richard Holden said while many young voters earn higher incomes today than their parents did at their age, it was now much harder to build wealth through property ownership.
"I'm not sure there's rising intergenerational income inequality, but there's a good case to worry about wealth inequality," he said.
"And I'd say that aspect is getting worse."
Many young Australians say they can't compete with older buyers at auctions.
(
ABC News: Michael Coggan
)
Tim Harcourt, an economist at the University of Technology Sydney, agreed the wealth disparity between generations was becoming increasingly acute.
"It's really starting to bite now as the Baby Boomers retire into their defined benefits superannuation schemes and extra properties," he said.
"I think housing is a red button issue … and that's where the youth reaction will be really important."
Young voters 'a ticking time bomb'
Dr Strangio said voters typically became more conservative as they grew older, but now they're skewing further to the left and feeling increasingly dissatisfied with the major parties.
"Young voters are a ticking time bomb," he said.
"They're facing real wage declines, high costs for education, difficulty in getting into the housing market and yet so far I think they've been quiet tolerant."
Photo shows
A smiling, dark-haired young woman in flared jeans stands in bare feet on a house veranda.
Young people in some of Australia's most expensive regional towns are disappointed with both major parties, as experts warn their policies are likely to push house prices up even further.
But he warned their patience wouldn't last forever.
"When we look overseas to places like Trump's America, young men are being attracted to aggressive, populist policies because of inequalities," he said.
"I think it's a warning that we do need to address those things with some urgency because we don't want to see those sorts of trends."
Professor Harcourt said while the youth vote typically skewed to the left in inner-city electorates, voting patterns would be harder to predict among tradies or factory workers in rural areas.
"It's quite unpredictable in the outer suburbs where there's housing stress and population stress, where there is a view that the infrastructure is not keeping up with the population growth," he said.
Read more about the federal election:
Want even more? Here's where you can find all our 2025
Climate change remains a concern
Aside from housing affordability and the cost of living, a new YouGov poll suggests young voters remain deeply concerned about the impacts of climate change.
Earlier this year, Australians' social media accounts lit up with videos of
A kayaker navigating floodwaters in Lockyer Valley in south-east Queensland.
(
Supplied: Michelle Badke
)
According to the YouGov poll, four-in-five young voters said climate change would influence their vote in the federal election.
The poll of 1,622 adult Australian voters, commissioned by Solutions for Climate Australia, found 79 per cent of Gen Zs and 73 per cent of millennials said climate change was an important part of their decision-making at the polling booth.
About 67 per cent of undecided voters also said climate change was important in determining their vote.
Australian Youth Climate Coalition national director Grace Vegesana said the issue wasn't going away.
Grace Vegesana says young people will continue to prioritise climate action.
(
Supplied: Grace Vegesana
)
"I think the parties who ignore young people will pay the price at the ballot box,"
she said.
"Young people under 40 do deeply care about the climate crisis and if they're not seeing solutions … they will vote accordingly."
She said many young voters reported feeling left behind this election.
"We are going to see a shift away from the major parties as people realise [we] want to see ambition, and not just be handed baseline policies that continue business as usual," she said.
Loading
Having trouble seeing this form? Try
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Sky News AU
17 minutes ago
- Sky News AU
Aussie motorists told to fuel up now as Iran-Israel conflict escalates
Australians are being warned that now is the low point in the petrol cycle and they should fuel up before prices rise in the coming days. With the price of Brent crude oil hitting a three-month high over the weekend as the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, surpassing $US80 a barrel, motorists are being urged to fill up. 'We will start to see the prices increase, but they are nowhere near as high as other economies have predicted,' NRMA spokesman Peter Khoury said. Mr Khoury said while the price of petrol was going up, it was not as much as some motorists feared, with on average drivers likely to pay 8 cents more a litre when fuelling up their car. 'Our regional benchmark – Malaysian Tapis – closed at $77 a barrel and we do expect it to go higher when the markets open tonight,' Mr Khoury said. 'But to put it in perspective, when we saw those really horrible record high prices back when Russia invaded Ukraine, Tapis was trading at $133 a barrel.' Australia motorists' fuel costs are based on Malaysian Tapis crude oil prices. While Tapis crude oil prices are influenced by the same factors as US brent crude oil prices, they do not necessarily trade at the same price. The price of Brent crude oil spiked to $US80 a barrel over the weekend after the US attacked and 'completely obliterated' three nuclear sites in Iran. Traders were worried about two major potential escalations in the conflict, with either the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or an all-out regional war negatively impacting the price of oil. Cutting off the Strait of Hormuz could send the price of oil above $US100 a barrel, as the 32km mile stretch is the primary route of exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait. But the passage that feeds the world with about 30 per cent of its oil supply is still open, at least for now, pending a final decision by Iran's Supreme Council after Iran's parliament voted to close it. Mr Khoury said it was important that Australians educated themselves before they filled up, with motorists in Sydney facing the bottom of the cycle, while Perth prices are set to fall on Tuesday. 'The reason I say that is because there is always a spread of prices,' he said. 'People are really surprised. We've had people say I thought the prices would be sky high and they are not.' Like an interest rate rise Higher petrol prices could act like an interest rate rise, as Aussies would have to spend more at the pump. Independent economist Saul Eslake said what happened next was unknown, but two scenarios could impact the Australian economy. 'One is the Iranians either choose to or find they can't do anything at all to which oil could fall back relatively quickly,' he said. 'On the other hand if they block the Strait of Hormuz, then the oil price could rise above $US100 a barrel, which while the world doesn't end it gets uncomfortably high.' Mr Eslake said the spike in oil prices was unlikely to move the Reserve Bank of Australia on interest rates in the short term. 'The RBA will look through the initial spike in oil prices, as it gets taken out through trimmed mean inflation rate,' he said. 'In a sense, higher oil prices act like an increase in interest rates; that is, to say people spend more on petrol and (have) less to spend on everything else. It's kind of the same way interest rates work.' Originally published as Aussie motorists told to fuel up now as Iran-Israel conflict escalates
7NEWS
21 minutes ago
- 7NEWS
Expert's advice to Aussie motorists concerned about fuel prices surging
Australian motorists worried about tensions in the Middle East affecting prices at the pump have been sent a clear message: 'Fill up now.' US President Donald Trump 's administration carried out an attack on three nuclear sites in Iran on Saturday. It comes after Israel launched attacks on Iran earlier this month. Oil prices are expected to rise as a result of the escalation in conflict, however experts have spoken out to ease fears of immediate surges. 'It's really important for Australians today to understand that what we have seen again over the weekend, while it is another escalation above and beyond the escalation we saw the weekend before it, this is the Middle East,' NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury said. 'Unfortunately, flare-ups are all too often and all too common.' The regional benchmark for oil in Australia, Tapis, is expected to increase in price by tonight, Khoury said. 'We don't know by how much,' he said. Based on what we're seeing out of the US, it could be $3 or $4 a barrel.' Why could petrol prices rise? A possible way for Iran to retaliate against the US and Israel is to close off the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is a vital trade route used to transport 20 per cent of the world's crude oil, or about 20 million barrels per day. The Iranian parliament has backed closing the strait in response to the US attacks, though this must be approved by Iran's national security council. Oil prices could shoot above $100 per barrel if the strait is closed for a prolonged period, according to Goldman Sachs and consulting firm Rapidan Energy. JPMorgan analysts view the risk of Iran closing Hormuz as low because the US would view such a move as a declaration of war. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called on China to help prevent Iran from closing the strait. Rubio said it would be 'economic suicide' for Iran to close the strait because the Islamic Republic's oil exports also pass through the waterway. Currently, it remains open. Khoury said this is 'the most important thing'. 'We do not want Australians panicking,' he said. 'Yes, there is speculation about what could happen in the next days and weeks, but it is the Middle East and anything can happen. 'The other important thing for Australians to know tonight is that if you live in Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide or Perth, fill up now.' A combination of prices being at or near the bottom of the cycle and turmoil in the Middle East mean now is the time to buy. 'Prices are either in the high $1.60s or in the low $1.70s,' Khoury said. 'That has everything to do with the domestic price cycles in those capital cities. 'The wholesale price in Australia has gone up about eight cents a litre since two Fridays ago when the escalation really flared up between Israel and Iran. 'It will go up again, is the expectation, based on the US decision to attack Iran over the weekend. 'But it's only gone up eight cents a litre in the last week and a bit. 'There's a lot of speculation about what could happen. It's really important that Australians focus on what is happening. 'And what is happening if you live in those bigger cities is that prices are pretty good.' Khoury advised motorists to check fuel prices near them and find the best deal. 'You can find some real bargains,' he said. 'On any given day, there can be huge gaps in the price of the cheapest service station and the price of the most expensive. 'In Sydney today, it's 70 cents a litre. 'Regardless of what's going on in the Middle East or anywhere else, and regardless of where we are in the price cycle, do your research, use the information that you have access to that motorists in other countries don't have. 'We fought hard to get that made public. It's there for you to use.' When asked when the conflict overseas will affect local prices, Khoury said it normally takes about seven to 10 days. Our service stations are yet to buy the more expensive barrels but when that happens, it will have a flow on effect. 'The NRMA will be monitoring those prices really carefully over the next days and weeks, because what we won't tolerate, obviously, is oil companies manipulating what's going on overseas to put their prices up any higher than they should go,' he said. Could we see a global oil crisis? Khoury also emphasised that even if the strait is closed, it would not create a similar crisis to those caused by other recent global conflicts. 'In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia being the second-largest producer of oil,' he said. 'That created an initial shock.' 'Obviously, the world was going to enforce sanctions, and they did. That created an even bigger shock. 'At the same time that that happened, the COVID supply crisis that affected the whole world hit its peak. So we all came out of COVID lockdown at the same time. 'The whole world came out of lockdown at the same time. Demand for oil spiked. Supply could not keep up. So we had probably the worst supply issue or challenge in our lifetime. 'And then Russia invaded Ukraine. 'All of those things had to happen at the same time for Tapis, our regional oil price, to hit $133 a barrel. 'It's currently at $76 a barrel. 'So to get back to those record high prices that we saw back in 2022, you would need a catastrophe at that level to affect global supply. 'We're not there yet, clearly, based on oil prices and the wholesale price. 'And I think that's what we want Australians to focus on tonight.'
Sydney Morning Herald
31 minutes ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Albanese doesn't want a bar of Middle East conflict, but that comes at a cost
Anthony Albanese's government looks more distant than ever from the Trump administration following the United States' decision to join Israel in bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. On the face of it, nothing much has changed. Albanese, joined by Penny Wong, announced Australia's support for US strikes on Monday morning because 'the world has long agreed that Iran cannot be allowed to get a nuclear weapon and we support action to prevent that'. But make no mistake, there are small but subtle shifts under way in the US-Australia relationship now that Donald Trump is back in the White House. The fact he has not met Albanese face to face surely has not helped. Whatever you think about Trump – and a solid majority of Australians don't like him one bit – the US remains our major military and strategic partner. It is (probably) still selling us submarines under the AUKUS deal that the government views as crucial to Australia's self-defence. So it matters when Albanese spoke curtly on Monday to point out three times that the US decision to bomb Iran was unilateral, all but confirming that Australia was not briefed ahead of time by the US. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, by contrast, got a heads-up. Last week, when Albanese was asked if Australia could send a ship to the Middle East in support of the US, he gave a categorical 'no'. That answer made clear the prime minister's view of Australia's potential entanglement in the fight: he doesn't see a need for it in this age of 'progressive patriotism'. Loading It was strange, then, that Albanese appeared almost annoyed in his press conference that he had been left out of the loop on the US decision to strike even as he confirmed that 'we aren't a central player in this conflict – that's just a fact.' When the prime minister was asked for a third time why the federal government had waited 24 hours before expressing unequivocal support for the US bombing, he bit back, arguing 'we issued a statement' on Sunday within hours of the strikes.
