Iran has ‘weakest hand of cards' in 40 years, says fmr. NATO commander
Admiral James Stavridis, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, speaks with Christiane Amanpour about Israel's strikes on Iran.
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Newsweek
32 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Iran Lawmakers Eye Page From North Korea Nuclear Playbook After US Strikes
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. A senior Iranian lawmaker has stated that fellow members of the Islamic Republic's parliament were considering a withdrawal from a multilateral treaty aimed at curbing the proliferation of nuclear weapons after a series of unprecedented U.S. strikes. To date, North Korea is the only nation to have acceded to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and subsequently withdraw. One other country, South Sudan, opted not to accede to the treaty after gaining independence from Sudan in 2011, joining India, Israel and Pakistan as the world's only non-NPT states. Pyongyang officially left the NPT in January 2003, just two months before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, citing concerns that the United States was planning a preemptive attack against North Korea, and went on to conduct the nation's first nuclear weapons test in 2006. Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and has yet to signal any shift in its official doctrine. However, officials and lawmakers have increasingly questioned the nation's commitment to the NPT and other international obligations in the wake of a campaign of strikes launched by Israel last week and joined by the U.S. on Saturday. In what may be the most serious indication that such a move was being weighed, the semiofficial Tasnim News Agency cited Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, as saying Sunday that "a review of the NPT treaty and Iran's non-membership in it were among the common demands" of lawmakers, which "are scheduled to be on the parliament's agenda." He also said that "most members of the committee strongly criticized the performance of the International Atomic Energy Agency and called for the cessation of cooperation or suspension of relations with this institution." Newsweek has reached out to the Iranian Mission to the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for comment. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addresses members of parliament in Tehran on March 2. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addresses members of parliament in Tehran on March 2. ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images Rezaei has previously urged for Iran's withdrawal from the NPT on several occasions amid the deepening Iran-Israel conflict that has rocked the region since the Palestinian Hamas movement's surprise attack against Israel on October 7, 2023. He has reiterated this call after Israel commenced a still-ongoing series of strikes targeting facilities and personnel tied to Iran's armed forces and nuclear program last Thursday. According to Article X of the NPT, which first came to effect in 1970, "each Party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country." In such a scenario, the country "shall give notice of such withdrawal to all other parties to the Treaty and to the United Nations Security Council three months in advance," including "a statement of the extraordinary events it regards as having jeopardized its supreme interests." Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated last Monday that Tehran would "take an appropriate decision" in relation to Iran's NPT membership amid the Israeli strikes and that a bill was being prepared in parliament. Still, he emphasized Iran's public commitment against developing nuclear weapons. Despite Iranian denials, Israeli officials have alleged that Iran had already obtained enough nuclear material to produce up to 15 nuclear weapons. The country has ramped up enrichment since President Donald Trump withdrew from a multilateral nuclear deal with Iran and major powers in 2018. As of March, U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard had assessed that Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. Trump has since repeatedly characterized her assessment as "wrong" as he defended Israel's campaign, which came in the midst of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, and prepared to order U.S. strikes against three key Iranian nuclear facilities in Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz. Despite the official ban, debate has intensified in Iran about the prospect of obtaining a nuclear weapon throughout the worsening conflict with Israel, with which Iran had twice traded direct strikes prior to the current battle. Iranian experts and former officials have previously told Newsweek such a move could not be ruled in the event that the Islamic Republic's leadership felt the survival of the state was under threat. Last week, Tehran-based security analyst Alireza Taghavania told Newsweek that the Israeli operations, backed by Trump, have "strengthened the position of those in Iran who wanted to build nuclear weapons," and that, "Now, most Iranians want to build nuclear weapons." In May 2024, the Iranian Mission to the U.N. told Newsweek that "in the event of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, all of which are subject to monitoring and inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency, there exists a possibility of Iran reconsidering its collaboration within the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA." The IAEA is the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog and is tasked with verifying the compliance of member states with the NPT. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi had previously accused Iran of failing to uphold its non-proliferation agreements, though he has also warned that "attacks on nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic of Iran have caused a sharp degradation in nuclear safety and security in Iran." "A diplomatic solution is within reach if the necessary political will is there. Elements for an agreement have been discussed," Grossi told an emergency U.N. Security Council session on Friday, a day before the U.S. strikes in Iran. "The IAEA can guarantee, through a watertight inspections system, that nuclear weapons will not be developed in Iran. They can form the basis of a long-standing agreement that brings peace and avoids a nuclear crisis in the Middle East." "This opportunity should not be missed," he added. "The alternative would be a protracted conflict and a looming threat of nuclear proliferation that, while emanating from the Middle East, would effectively erode the NPT and the non-proliferation regime as a whole." The U.S. strikes have divided the world's eight other nuclear powers. China, Russia and Pakistan have condemned the strikes; the United Kingdom offered cautious support and joined France and India in calling for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy, while Israel has praised Trump's move. North Korea has yet to issue an official response to the U.S. raid but has repeatedly condemned Israel's operations in Iran as well as U.S. support for them. "The international community is strictly watching the U.S. and Western forces who fan up the flames of war by taking issue with the legitimate sovereign right and the exercise of the right to self-defence of Iran, the victim, far from condemning Israel for getting frantic with the territorial expansion, pushing the situation in the Middle East to an uncontrollable catastrophic phase," a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in a statement published Thursday. The spokesperson added: "The Zionists who brought a new war to the Middle East and the behind-the-scene forces who zealously patronize and support them will be held totally responsible for destroying international peace and security." Meanwhile, Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday that among the consequences of the U.S. attacks would be "the enrichment of nuclear material—and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons—will continue."
Yahoo
36 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Oil prices poised to jump after US strikes on Iran with Strait of Hormuz status in focus
Oil was poised to open higher Sunday after US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear sites intensified fears of a potential supply shock, amid growing concerns that Tehran could retaliate by closing a key maritime chokepoint. Crude futures had already posted weekly gains following the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Iran just over a week ago. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) closed at $74.93 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, settled at $76.73. Prices are up over 10% in the week since the conflict began. 'Oil prices are expected to open at least $5 per barrel higher when trading begins at 6:00 p.m. Eastern. We're looking at $80 oil on the open,' said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. On Sunday, traders weighed possible retaliation moves from Iran, a major oil producer and exporter, following the US's direct involvement. According to state media, Iran's parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. The final decision on whether to shut the vital waterway — which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows — rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. What Wall Street once viewed as a low-probability event is now being treated as a significantly heightened risk. "Should oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz be affected, we could easily see $100 oil," Lipow said. Following the outbreak of the Israel-Iran war, JPMorgan analysts forecast that under a "severe outcome," a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $120–$130 per barrel. If crude climbs into that range, analysts predict gasoline and diesel prices could rise by as much as $1.25 per gallon. 'Consumers would be looking at a national average gasoline price of around $4.50 per gallon—closer to $6.00 if you're in California,' Lipow said. Other possible retaliatory moves from Iran could include supporting Yemen's Houthi rebels in renewed attacks on commercial shipping. If the conflict escalates and the US or Israel targets Iran's oil export infrastructure, analysts warn that Tehran may retaliate by striking export facilities in neighboring countries. 'In other words, 'If we can't export our oil, you can't have yours,'' Lipow said. The key issue isn't just the potential for disruption, but how long it lasts, Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Sunday. 'If infrastructure is hit but can be quickly restored, crude may struggle to hold gains,' she said. 'But if Iran's response causes lasting damage or introduces long-term supply risk, we're likely to see a stronger and more sustained move higher.' Last week, JPMorgan analysts noted that since 1967 — aside from the Yom Kippur War in 1973 — none of the 11 major military conflicts involving Israel have had a lasting impact on oil prices. In contrast, events directly involving major regional oil producers — such as the first Gulf War in 1990, the Iraq War in 2003, and the imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018 — have all led to meaningful and sustained moves in oil markets. 'During these episodes, we estimate that oil traded at a $7–$14 per barrel premium to its fair value for an extended period,' wrote JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva and her team. They added that the most significant and lasting price impacts historically come from 'regime changes' in oil-producing countries — whether that be through leadership transitions, coups, revolutions, or major political shifts. 'While demand conditions and OPEC's spare capacity shape the broader market response, these events typically drive substantial oil price spikes, averaging a 76% increase from onset to peak,' Kaneva wrote. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) had raised output in the months leading up to Israel's strike on Iran on June 13. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Sign in to access your portfolio
Wall Street Journal
41 minutes ago
- Wall Street Journal
Iran's Strait of Hormuz Gambit
Iran's Parliament voted Sunday to close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage out of the Persian Gulf. If the regime does this, it will be consistent with Iran's recent behavior, which is to go for its own jugular. Iran is run by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so the Supreme National Security Council will make the final decision. Some 20% or more of the world's oil supply moves through the Strait after loading from oil terminals in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iran. There's no doubt that closing the Strait would send oil prices higher, probably above $100 a barrel for a time. A risk premium for a possible closure has already bumped the oil price to the mid-$70 a barrel range since Israel launched its attacks on Iran. The world supply of oil is more diverse than it was 20 years ago, thanks in part to American frackers. Some Gulf oil can also move via pipeline from Saudi Arabia. China would be one of the biggest losers from a Hormuz shutdown, as much of its oil comes from the Gulf. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made that point on the Sunday talk shows, urging China to advise Iran against closing the Strait. Iran can certainly do some short-term damage. The shipping passage through the Strait is two miles at its narrowest and vulnerable to sea mines. Iran could harass ships with its naval forces, notably high-speed patrol boats, as well as drones and missiles from onshore.
