Parties to test political waters in Tokyo election ahead of Upper House vote
Campaigning for the June 22 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election — an early indicator of how voters nationwide might cast their ballots, especially for the major national parties, in next month's Upper House poll — kicked off Friday.
Candidates for the 127 seat chamber include those from the main national ruling and opposition parties, as well as local parties, including Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First), whose special adviser is Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike.
Key questions that have emerged in the race include how well the Liberal Democratic Party, currently with 30 seats, can retain its position as the largest party in the assembly. It will put up 42 candidates. Six former and current assembly members involved in the LDP's political funds scandals are running without formal party support.
Large gains or losses in the election could prompt changes to the LDP's Upper House campaign strategy and further strengthen or weaken Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's standing as party leader, which is already weak.
The July 2021 Tokyo assembly election saw the LDP and its ruling coalition partner, Komeito, failing to win a majority. Then-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced two months later he would not seek reelection as LDP president and was replaced later in September by Fumio Kishida.
Tomin First — the second-largest party in the Tokyo assembly, with 26 seats — is fielding 37 candidates.
Komeito, which has 23 assembly seats, is fielding only 22 candidates this time.
Though Koike serves as an adviser to Tomin First, she and Komeito's Tokyo chapter have a good relationship. How independent voters respond to the governor's support of Komeito and Tomin First candidates in Tokyo's multiseat districts is another key question that could impact Komeito's chances in the subsequent Upper House race, where the LDP and Komeito still hold a majority.
The Tokyo race will also be a test of the opposition Democratic Party for the People's strength in the wake of a political stumble.
It withdrew its endorsement of former Lower House lawmaker Shiori Yamao Wednesday, just one day after she announced she was running as a DPP national proportional candidate.
The DPP and its leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, faced a public and social media backlash, along with dissent within the party, over the initial decision to back Yamao, who had been involved in a series of political scandals as well as an extramarital affair.
Currently without any presence in the assembly, the DPP is putting up 18 candidates.
The party did well in last October's Lower House election, especially in urban centers such as Tokyo, where it won over many younger, independent voters who were attracted to its economic policies.
Kentaro Yamamoto, a political scientist at Tokyo's Kokugakuin University, says that while the DPP's withdrawal of its endorsement of Yamao was a blow, it might not hurt the party too badly — not because of its strategy, but because of Tomin First's cautious approach in this election.
'Tomin First has narrowed down its candidates to just one in many districts and appears to be avoiding direct competition with DPP candidates. It seems that Tomin First's tactics for fielding candidates are conservative, and that they have already calculated that reform-minded voters who previously supported Tomin First will switch to the DPP this time,' he says.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — which is the largest national opposition party but is only fifth-largest in the Tokyo assembly, with just 12 seats — is backing 20 candidates.
Opposition forces are also seeking to form alliances in some constituencies. The Japanese Communist Party and the CDP have coordinated their efforts to avoid fielding competing candidates in districts with one to three seats, for example.
The JCP currently holds 19 seats and is fielding 24 candidates, while Reiwa Shinsengumi is fielding three.
There is also the party of former Akitakata Mayor Shinji Ishimaru, which he named The Path to Rebirth.
Ishimaru shocked the established parties in last year's Tokyo gubernatorial contest, finishing second behind incumbent Koike and winning nearly 1.7 million votes in a field of 54 candidates. But he has lost much popularity since then, and his party is considered likely to pick up few, if any, seats.
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