Just before election night, Trumpian politics rears its head
It was an almost philosophical musing, on the podcast for a largely satirical website, by one of the most politically careful politicians in Canberra.
Asked on the Betoota Talks podcast this about the Voice referendum, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said:
"I think we'll look back on it in 10 years' time and it'll be a bit like marriage equality."
"I always used to say, marriage equality, which took us such a bloody fight to get that done — and I thought, all this fuss — it'll become something, it'll be like, people go 'did we even have an argument about that?'"
By Friday, both parties had research showing Penny Wong's comments were hitting the Labor vote hard in some seats.
(
Reuters: Kevin Mohatt
)
This election has been defined by politicians and pollsters as one on the cost of living.
Yet by Friday, both parties were reporting that their research was showing Wong's comments — and the reminder of the Voice issue — was hitting the Labor vote hard in some seats, notably in Western Australia, Queensland and Victoria.
The News Corp media were running hard on the line that the comments showed Labor was "arrogant" or "disrespectful" of the will of the people shown in the 2023 referendum.
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Coalition's Voice strategy bites
On Friday, Peter Dutton claimed Labor had "a plan" to bring the Voice back, despite flat denials by ministers from Anthony Albanese down.
"They have a plan to introduce by legislation a Voice," he told journalists in the Perth seat of Tangney, one of the seats where the issue has bitten.
"Now, Australians voted against that. And you would have thought that the prime minister would have been honest but even on that issue he's not being honest."
Whatever the extent of influence of Wong's comments and the Voice on the vote will prove to have had on Saturday night, the return of the Voice issue showed that while Trumpian politics might have been toned down somewhat in the wake of Donald Trump's global tariff moves, issues that cause popular anger in parts of the community, or are seen as emblematic of an out of touch "elite", have not gone away.
After all, by the last week of the campaign, Dutton was banging the law and order drum, railing against the "hate media", speaking of the school curriculum and changing his tune about Indigenous Welcomes to Country.
A focus on tight races
The day-to-day story of the election campaign has — as is so often the case — focused on the leaders of the two major political parties, and to some extent on the Greens.
There's been new focus on individual seats where independent candidates are competing in tight and sometimes tough races.
That story has included the polling story of an extraordinary revival of Labor's fortunes — and those of the standing of the prime minister — as well as the decline in the poll standing of the Coalition and its leader Dutton.
That has left polls consistently pointing to Labor dominating the two-party preferred vote — if individual polls differ about the extent of that dominance.
On Friday, Peter Dutton claimed Labor had "a plan" to bring the Voice back, despite flat denials by ministers from Anthony Albanese down.
(
ABC News: Brendan Esposito
)
The implications of that dominance — in terms of the make-up of the parliament — are still hard to predict, partly because there are so many unclear contests involving independents, and in some cases tight three-way contests between the major parties and the Greens.
What we definitely don't know so much about is how the vote for the so-called centre-right minor parties, like Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots, will play out.
It's not that these parties are expected to win seats in the House of Representatives.
But there has been considerable focus this week on pollsters reporting a much higher proportion of preferences from these parties are being directed to the Coalition in outer-suburban seats.
So one speculation goes to the extent that this might deliver some tight contests to Peter Dutton. This is particularly the case because of the Coalition's decision to do a preference deal with One Nation for the first time in its history.
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The One Nation effect
Anyone who has already voted in this election may have also been struck by the sheer number of such groups appearing on your ballot paper. It's not like you can avoid them by putting them beneath the Killer Tomato Party or the Rights for Turnips Party.
That's a lot of preferences all being funnelled up through a series of like-minded groups.
It has been speculated that the polling figures for One Nation around the country could potentially presage the party gaining up to five senators in the upper house.
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For a party that was spoken of as on its way out just last year because it is so utterly attached to the personality of its leader, that is pretty remarkable.
Trying to exploit the anger that has fuelled political movements like MAGA and populism in the United States and Europe, and aping Trumpian tactics, became a more fraught exercise for the Coalition in the wake of the US President's erratic tariff tactics and rhetoric.
But it would seem to be folly to think that we have negotiated the eddies of culture wars and seen an election fought in more traditional fashion on economic concerns and the hip pocket.
What are the implications of how that may affect both the Parliament and our capacity to deal with the complex world we face as we emerge from the curious bubble of a domestic election campaign?
Trump has had an out-sized impact on the race.
(
AP: Evan Vucci
)
Trump's impact on Australian politics
When Trump announced his global tariffs policy in early April, it seemed to crystallise how damaging his erratic America first policies could be to all of us.
Having early quasi-embraced the Trump brand, for example, calling the US President a "big thinker" of his suggestion to turn the Gaza strip into a resort, Peter Dutton had to change his language about Trump and seemed to walk away from the more generic DOGE-style tropes of current American politics.
Trump's moves also worked well for the prime minister, whose steady, down the centre approach to Trump seemed vindicated.
Pundits on both sides of politics were mostly predicting a Labor minority government through to a Labor majority as the campaign ended.
A majority Albanese government would be a very different beast to the one we have experienced to date, if only because of the confidence and authority a now rare second term win delivers to a prime minister.
A majority Albanese government would be a very different beast to the one we have experienced to date.
(
ABC News: Brendan Esposito
)
That, of course, doesn't guarantee you won't have to deal with a difficult Senate.
And the politics of the times would be very much influenced by just how devastating a defeat the Coalition faced. The chaotic nature of the campaign has left little love for Dutton among his colleagues, and the forces of the Liberal and National Party have been left utterly confused about what they have stood for.
"We don't believe in that!" was a common barely stifled response by MPs and party operators when they were hearing their leader announce policies they were hearing for the first time during the campaign.
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A sizeable cross bench in those circumstances — and indeed in cases of a minority government — could well be the source of both policy provocation and the space that a government needs to prosecute any significant reforms.
The focus on the policy chaos in the Coalition has meant there have been few hard comparisons against which to judge Labor policies.
But the times will inevitably require a return to politics which doesn't just involve giving people stuff.
It is going to involve the return to the art of the exposed trade-off for all parts of the community, for means-testing, grandfathering and constraints on largesse.
And it could well involve another art that feels like it has been lost in recent times: exploiting a crisis to transform the conversation.
The global situation requires the complete rewriting of the hardwiring of our political and bureaucratic establishment brains.
That suggests both a courage and agility in avoiding the populist strata of day to day politics we have not achieved for a very long time.
Laura Tingle is 7.30's political editor.
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The US action was directed at specific sites central to Iran's nuclear program." In response to a question about whether the attacks were in breach of international law, Mr Albanese did not directly answer. "Iran has an interest ... In ensuring that there is not an escalation in the region," he said. "The United States have made clear their position, and we continue to call for dialogue. Had Iran complied with the very reasonable requests that were made, including by the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency], then circumstances would have been different." He said Australia's support of the US bombings was consistent with comments made over the past week about a need for de-escalation. "We are not a central player in this conflict," he said. The Prime Minister said he remained "deeply concerned about any escalation in the region." "We don't want escalation and a full-scale war," he said. 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She said about 1300 Australians and their families were registered with DFAT seeking assistance to return to Australia from Israel, along with 2900 Australians and their families trapped in Iran. The government was seeking to make use of a potential window to fly citizens out of Israel if the airspace opened for "a limited period", she said. "In Iran, it is a very difficult situation ... We've deployed Australian officials to the Azerbaijani border, so if Australians do get there, we can provide them with support." Greens defence and foreign affairs spokesperson David Shoebridge blasted the Albanese government for supporting "the illegal bombing of Iran." Senator Shoebridge said the attack was "unprincipled, contrary to international law and another blow to international peace." "The Greens condemn Labor's support for the US attack," he said. "The decision to side with Trump and Netenytanu, reckless warmongers, over the people and peace will follow the Albanese government for decades to come." Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has declined to say whether the United States made use of an Australian military base for its attack on Iran, while confirming his government's support. Asked if a facility like the secretive US military base at Pine Gap in the Northern Territory, or intelligence gathered there, had been used in the attack launched on Sunday, he said: "We don't talk about intelligence, obviously, but we've made it very clear this was a unilateral action taken by the United States." "The world has long agreed that Iran cannot be allowed to get a nuclear weapon," Mr Albanese told reporters in Canberra on Monday, addressing the media for the first time since the US bombed nuclear sites in Iran about 24 hours earlier. "We support action to prevent that ... That is what this is. The US action was directed at specific sites central to Iran's nuclear program." In response to a question about whether the attacks were in breach of international law, Mr Albanese did not directly answer. "Iran has an interest ... In ensuring that there is not an escalation in the region," he said. "The United States have made clear their position, and we continue to call for dialogue. Had Iran complied with the very reasonable requests that were made, including by the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency], then circumstances would have been different." He said Australia's support of the US bombings was consistent with comments made over the past week about a need for de-escalation. "We are not a central player in this conflict," he said. The Prime Minister said he remained "deeply concerned about any escalation in the region." "We don't want escalation and a full-scale war," he said. "We've been upfront about the challenge facing the international community that is dealing with the threat posed by any Iranian nuclear weapons program and dealing with the risk of regional escalation, and that's why Australia called upon Iran to come to the table and abandon any nuclear weapons program. "Iran didn't come to the table, just as it has repeatedly failed to comply with its international obligations. We urge Iran not to take any further action that could destabilise the region." When asked if he had been briefed by the Trump administration before the bombings, Mr Albanese repeated: "This was a unilateral action." The Prime Minister's press conference followed criticism by the Coalition for his decision to remain silent in the aftermath of the attacks on Sunday. The government initially released a cautiously worded statement from an unnamed spokesperson, saying Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program was a threat to international peace and security while calling for "de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy". Opposition home affairs spokesperson Andrew Hastie told Sky this "was not good enough." The Prime Minister "should have called a National Security Committee meeting, and he should have stood up and spoken to the Australian people," Mr Hastie said. "This is a very significant moment, and he was nowhere to be seen ... The Coalition supports this military action by the United States." Earlier on Monday, ACT Labor senator and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher told ABC Canberra radio: "We certainly support action that's been taken to prevent Iran getting a nuclear weapon." When asked if this meant US President Donald Trump "did the right thing" in bombing Iran, Senator Gallagher responded: "I'll use the Foreign Minister's language that she's used, because she's the spokesperson for the government on these matters." "I understand people's concerns, it's been raised with me over the weekend," she said. "Most Australians just want to see peace in the Middle East. They don't want to see the loss of civilian lives. "They don't want to see the damage that's been done to communities in the Middle East that we've been witnessing in Gaza and now are seeing in Iran [and] in Lebanon." Senator Wong told reporters in Canberra on Monday morning that Iran "is not in compliance with its obligations under the non-proliferation arrangements that it has signed up to." "What happens now matters ... We do call for diplomacy, de-escalation and dialogue because the world does not want to see full-scale war in the Middle East." She said about 1300 Australians and their families were registered with DFAT seeking assistance to return to Australia from Israel, along with 2900 Australians and their families trapped in Iran. The government was seeking to make use of a potential window to fly citizens out of Israel if the airspace opened for "a limited period", she said. "In Iran, it is a very difficult situation ... We've deployed Australian officials to the Azerbaijani border, so if Australians do get there, we can provide them with support." Greens defence and foreign affairs spokesperson David Shoebridge blasted the Albanese government for supporting "the illegal bombing of Iran." Senator Shoebridge said the attack was "unprincipled, contrary to international law and another blow to international peace." "The Greens condemn Labor's support for the US attack," he said. "The decision to side with Trump and Netenytanu, reckless warmongers, over the people and peace will follow the Albanese government for decades to come."
