Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on June 16 amid Israel-Iran war

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to track mixed trend in global markets on Monday as sentiment remains cautious amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East due to the Israel-Iran war.
The trends on Gift Nifty indicate a positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,791 level, a premium of nearly 65 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.
On Friday, the domestic equity market ended lower for the second consecutive session, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 24,800 level.
The Sensex declined 573.38 points, or 0.70%, to close at 81,118.60, while the Nifty 50 settled 169.60 points, or 0.68%, lower at 24,718.60.
Here's what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex formed a long bearish candle on the weekly charts, and is currently trading comfortably below the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average), which is largely negative.
'We believe that as long as Sensex remains below the 20-day SMA or 81,600, weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, the index could retest the level of 80,500. A breach of 80,500 could accelerate selling pressure. Below this level, Sensex could slip to the 50-day SMA around 79,900,' said Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities.
On the upside, he believes a break above 81,300 could extend the pullback move up to 81,600. Further gains may also continue, lifting Sensex toward 81,900 - 82,100.
In the derivatives segment, the highest Nifty Call Open Interest (OI) is concentrated at the 24,800 and 25,000 strikes, suggesting strong resistance around these levels. On the downside, the highest Put Open Interest is seen at the 24,600 and 24,500 strikes, indicating strong support and traders' confidence in holding these levels, Choice Broking said.
Nifty 50 ended below 24,800 level on June 13, and formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly timeframe.
'The short-term trend of Nifty 50 is negative, but the medium-term trend remains positive. Nifty 50 seems to have entered a broader high low range of 24,500 - 25,100 again. Hence, any sharp weakness below 24,500 could possibly trigger a sharp selloff. However, any sustainable bounce from the support could pull Nifty 50 towards 25,100 levels again in the near term,' said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the Nifty 50 has slipped below both the 9-day and 20-day exponential moving averages, indicating a weakening near-term trend.
'The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled off to the neutral 50 mark, hinting at indecision, while the MACD remains skewed to the downside with a widening negative histogram, signaling continued bearish undertones. The support is now placed at 24,500, followed by 24,375, a breakdown of which could accelerate further downside risk. The resistance is seen at 24,850, with a stronger hurdle around 24,920. A close above these levels is essential for any meaningful recovery,' Mehra said.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. said that the Nifty 50 formed a bullish Marubozu candlestick pattern on the daily chart near the short-term consolidation base, indicating strength.
'Hence, the 24,500 level will act as immediate support for the index, while on the upside 25,000 – 25,200 zone will act as a major hurdle. As long as the index holds above 24,500, short term traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy,' Yedve said.
According to VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, Nifty 50 is expected to find support between 24,450 and 24,330, while facing resistance in the range of 24,750 to 24,860 in today's market session.
'In the coming week, market participants may view dips in the Nifty 50 index as potential buying opportunities for the long term. I suggest they remain vigilant and track ongoing geopolitical and economic developments to develop suitable strategies,' Ambala said.
Bank Nifty index dropped 555.20 points, or 0.99%, to end at 55,527.35 on Friday. On a weekly basis, the index declined 1.86%, snapping a four-week winning streak, and formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart.
'Bank Nifty index closed below the 21-day EMA, indicating short-term profit booking. However, it continues to hold above the crucial 55,000 support zone and the previous all-time high support near 54,500. As long as these levels are intact, the broader structure remains bullish, and a buy-on-dips strategy is advisable. On the upside, 56,100 remains a key resistance; a breakout above this level could trigger a fresh rally toward 56,600,' said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group.
He advises traders to watch for price action near support zones for potential entry opportunities.
Bajaj Broking Research said in a note that the Bank Nifty index, on the weekly chart, formed a sizable bear candle signaling profit booking at higher levels around 57,000 levels.
'A move and a close below Friday's low of 55,150 levels will open further downside towards 54,500 - 54,000 levels in the coming sessions. Key supports are placed around those levels being the confluence of 50 days EMA and the lower band of the recent consolidation range.
On the higher side 56,000 remains a key hurdle, only a move above the same will signal a pause in the current corrective decline,' said Bajaj Broking Research.
According to Hrishikesh Yedve, Bank Nifty index found support near the 34-Day EMA and formed a bullish belt hold candlestick pattern on the daily chart, indicating strength.
'Immediate support for the Bank Nifty is placed near 55,150 (34-DEMA), while resistance is seen near 57,050. Traders are advised to follow a buy-on-dips approach as long as the index holds above 55,150,' Yedve said.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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