Tories must decide who they are
Opinion
The Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba has a problem — and it's one they can't ignore much longer.
The Tories are not only sinking in the polls, they're losing their grip on who they are, and who they represent.
Months after a bruising leadership race that saw MLA and former Blue Bomber Obby Khan emerge as the new face of the party, the PCs remain mired in low poll numbers, particularly in Winnipeg — a city they must win if they hope to return to government.
MIKAELA MACKENZIE / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS
Progressive Conservative Leader Obby Khan
Meanwhile, their once-solid rural base is showing signs of discontent and drift, as evidenced by the surprising support for Wally Daudrich, the controversial hotelier and social conservative who captured a sizable chunk of votes during the leadership contest.
The growing divide — between a socially conservative base in rural Manitoba and the more centrist, urban voters in Winnipeg — is pulling the party in opposite directions. And under Khan's leadership, the PCs have yet to articulate a clear vision that bridges that divide, or restores public confidence in their brand.
It's not just a question of time. The wounds from the 2023 election defeat under former premier Heather Stefanson haven't healed. The loss was historic, not just because it handed the NDP a decisive majority under Premier Wab Kinew, but because the PCs were trounced in many of the urban ridings they had previously held or contested closely. And although Khan brought a new face to the party, the political winds have not shifted in their favour.
The latest Free Press-Probe Research polling shows the PCs languishing in Winnipeg, where the NDP continues to dominate. In many urban ridings, the PCs are at historically low levels. In the suburbs — once a stronghold for the party — NDP support remains stubbornly strong.
Compounding the issue is the ideological tension at the heart of the party. To win rural Manitoba, the Tories need to appeal to more socially conservative voters, many of whom are skeptical of urban-focused policies and are drawn to voices like Daudrich's — who rails against what he calls 'woke politics.'
But that same message is political poison in most parts of Winnipeg, where voters tend to be more progressive on social issues, and more demanding when it comes to public services like health care, education and affordable housing.
Khan, to his credit, has tried to strike a balance. He's spoken about economic growth, entrepreneurship and community development — issues that transcend the urban-rural divide. But his message has yet to cut through, in part because he hasn't clearly defined how his vision for the party differs from that of his predecessors, or how it would translate into actual governance.
The PCs can't simply wait for the NDP to falter. They need to do the hard work of rebuilding trust with Manitobans — not just by changing leaders, but by clarifying what they stand for and who they serve.
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Are they a party of rural populism? Of fiscal restraint? Of urban renewal? Right now, no one — perhaps not even their own caucus — seems entirely sure.
If they want to regain relevance, they must find a way to unify their base while appealing to the broad political centre. That will take more than flashy news conferences or slogans.
It requires hard policy work, meaningful community engagement, and a willingness to evolve.
Manitobans want a real choice at the ballot box. And we all know democracy is stronger when both government and opposition are vibrant, credible and competitive.
Right now, the Tories are not offering that. Until they figure out who they are, they'll remain on the outside looking in.
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