Rural Resurgence Powers South Island Into Lead In ASB's Latest Regional Economic Scoreboard
Canterbury in top spot for Q1 2025
South Island still proving more robust than the North
Trouble in the Capital: Wellington remains in 15th place
Strong commodity prices and soaring food and fibre exports have helped power the South Island to a strong start to 2025, with Canterbury, West Coast, Otago and Marlborough in the top four spots of ASB's Regional Economic Scoreboard for Q1. Canterbury has kicked off 2025 on a high, securing first place off the back of a broad-based recovery across retail, housing and consumer confidence.
'The scoreboard is reflecting what many in the regions already know - rural New Zealand is doing the heavy lifting right now,' says Chief Economist Nick Tuffley. 'South Island regions are benefiting from strong commodity tailwinds and resilient export demand, especially across dairy, meat, forestry and horticulture.'
The rural-led momentum comes as the Government forecasts record-breaking export earnings for New Zealand's food and fibre sector, which are expected to rise 12% to $54.6 billion in the year ahead. Fieldays 2025 has put a national spotlight on the sector's strength, with farmers, growers, fishers and foresters driving a powerful export rebound.
According to Tuffley, 'We're seeing the impact of that performance filter through to local economies, particularly in regions like the West Coast, which has posted its best result in four years, and Canterbury, where rural strength is boosting confidence across the board.'
The West Coast made a remarkable leap into second place, thanks to robust construction activity and a rebound in retail sales. Meanwhile, Otago slipped to third, ending its long streak of scoreboard wins, despite Queenstown's ongoing tourism strength.
In contrast, Wellington ranked 15th for the third consecutive quarter, with Auckland in 10th place. While inflation is easing and interest rates have been cut, households are still feeling the squeeze.
'It's clear that the rural and urban economies seem to be moving at different speeds across the country,' says Tuffley. 'It's regional New Zealand, particularly the food and fibre sector, that's doing the hard work of pulling the national economy forward. Meanwhile, places like Wellington continue to face a range of challenges including employment, construction and consumer confidence.'
Looking ahead, ASB sees early signs of recovery emerging across the country, aided by the Reserve Bank's 225 basis points of OCR cuts to date. However, global uncertainty continues to cast a shadow over the pace and strength of that recovery.
The full ASB Regional Economic Scoreboard, along with other recent ASB reports covering a range of commentary, can be accessed at our ASB Economic Insights page: https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/economic-insights.html
@ASBBank @ASBMarkets www.asb.co.nz
About the ASB Regional Economic Scoreboard
The NZ Regional Economic Scoreboard takes the latest quarterly regional statistics and ranks the economic performance of New Zealand's 16 Regional Council areas. The fastest growing regions gain the highest ratings, and a good performance by the national economy raises the ratings of all regions. Ratings are updated every three months, and are based on 8 measures, including population, employment, retail trade, house prices, house sales, construction, consumer confidence, and new car registration.
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