‘Astonishing result': How super funds are faring amid Trump tariff volatility
One week out from the end of the financial year, analysts are predicting a strong annual performance for superannuation funds despite a year of market volatility caused by President Donald Trump's trade war and escalating conflict in the Middle East, including US involvement in Iran.
Analysts from Chant West and SuperRatings predict Australian super funds, which manage a combined $4.2 trillion of members' money, are set to record positive returns for the 2024-25 financial year, the third year of growth in a row.
Chant West has forecast that the median growth fund return for the year ending June 30 will be about 9 per cent, which is consistent with 9.1 per cent and 9.2 per cent for the financial years before this one. Figures from May showed returns were 2.7 per cent for that month.
Chant West senior investment research manager Mano Mohankumar said the predicted results were a welcome surprise, given it has been a volatile year on financial markets.
'A final return close to 9 per cent would be an astonishing result in light of the volatility we've seen this past year. The [2024-45 financial year] experience highlights the importance of remaining patient and not getting distracted by short-term noise,' Mohankumar said.
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Although super funds are performing within their typical long-term risk objectives of one year of negative returns in every five years on average (instead, there has been one every 6.4 years), global events causing market volatility have harmed super fund performance in the past. Examples include negative returns in 2008 and 2009 due to the global financial crisis and in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Major super funds, which are heavily invested in shares, were hit hard when markets tanked in April in response to Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs. But markets have recovered since then in response to Trump pausing his plans.
The ASX 200 is up almost 10 per cent in the past year and Wall Street's S&P500 has risen 9.5 per cent. Even so, analysts have predicted more volatility ahead due to uncertainty over Trump's policies and geopolitical risks, including the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
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The Advertiser
40 minutes ago
- The Advertiser
Derailing ransomware - today's great train robbery
It wasn't too long ago that the criminal enterprise of choice would see thieves jump aboard a moving train, navigate the carriages, neutralise the guards, get through locked doors, and ransack the locomotive of its valuable jewels and gold. In 2025, there is a similar motive at play, but the heists have shifted from the Wild West to the World Wide Web. Cyberattacks are today's great train robberies and they're increasingly common. Recent research from Rubrik Zero Labs found 92 per cent of Australian organisations experienced a cyberattack last year, and the attackers are only growing more sophisticated. Ransomware is one of the most common types of cyberattacks, comprising 20 per cent of all attacks, and those behind them do not discriminate. According to the same Rubrik Zero Labs' research, attackers have evolved, with 78 per cent of Australian victims reporting the threat actors were able to at least partially harm backup and recovery options. In more than a third (35 per cent) of cases, the attackers were completely successful. Why are attackers targeting backups? If they can successfully compromise these critical data copies, the victim's ability to recover data under their own steam will be severely impacted. The thinking is, if they can take these down, then the victim will be forced to pay the ransom. And it's working. Rubrik Labs Research also found that of the Australian firms hit with a ransomware attack last year, more than 90 per cent paid the ransom to recover their data. While paying an attacker may allow a business to recover its data or stop a threat, it also supports the cybercrime business model. If a ransomware attack works once, what's going to stop it working again, and again, and again. Paying a ransom just fuels the fire. These payments may have previously gone unreported, however late last month the federal government introduced mandatory ransomware payment reporting requirements. This could change the calculus for local organisations as they seek to avoid the reputational risk of payments going public. Unfortunately, despite best efforts, there is no silver bullet to protect against every single cyberattack. You can't prevent the unpreventable. So the only thing that matters is how quickly you can recover. There are many reasons why the frequency of cyberattacks, like ransomware, are increasing. These include the rising use of AI by cybercriminals, more sophistication of attacks, significant financial incentives, uneasy geopolitical climates, digitisation of organisations, and the shortage of cybersecurity professionals. With this in mind, adopting a preemptive recovery posture - one that recognises a motivated attack will eventually be successful - organisations can take the initiative and recover faster than attackers can adapt. So, it is imperative to be prepared with a recovery plan. To prepare for the worst. To adopt an "assumed breach" mindset. In short, cyber resilience strategies reduce the severity of ransomware threats. Even if an organisation's systems are breached and held to ransom, secure backups ensure the business can quickly assess the scale of the breach, understand the scope of the compromise, and rapidly recover operations - all without paying a ransom. This will lead to a decline in Australian businesses paying out ransoms and perpetuating the cybercrime business model. If the nation is no longer seen as a soft target, if robbers never come away with any loot, they'll shift their attention elsewhere - or better yet, leave the looting life behind. Just like trains in the Wild West, businesses need multiple defences. Even if the thieves make it onto the train, past the guard and get through the locked door, it's not like valuables are out in the open waiting to be taken. They're in safes, requiring different keys and combinations to open. Cyber resilience strategies are an organisation's impenetrable safe - ensuring the crown jewels and critical backups needed to keep the train in motion are out of an attacker's reach. It wasn't too long ago that the criminal enterprise of choice would see thieves jump aboard a moving train, navigate the carriages, neutralise the guards, get through locked doors, and ransack the locomotive of its valuable jewels and gold. In 2025, there is a similar motive at play, but the heists have shifted from the Wild West to the World Wide Web. Cyberattacks are today's great train robberies and they're increasingly common. Recent research from Rubrik Zero Labs found 92 per cent of Australian organisations experienced a cyberattack last year, and the attackers are only growing more sophisticated. Ransomware is one of the most common types of cyberattacks, comprising 20 per cent of all attacks, and those behind them do not discriminate. According to the same Rubrik Zero Labs' research, attackers have evolved, with 78 per cent of Australian victims reporting the threat actors were able to at least partially harm backup and recovery options. In more than a third (35 per cent) of cases, the attackers were completely successful. Why are attackers targeting backups? If they can successfully compromise these critical data copies, the victim's ability to recover data under their own steam will be severely impacted. The thinking is, if they can take these down, then the victim will be forced to pay the ransom. And it's working. Rubrik Labs Research also found that of the Australian firms hit with a ransomware attack last year, more than 90 per cent paid the ransom to recover their data. While paying an attacker may allow a business to recover its data or stop a threat, it also supports the cybercrime business model. If a ransomware attack works once, what's going to stop it working again, and again, and again. Paying a ransom just fuels the fire. These payments may have previously gone unreported, however late last month the federal government introduced mandatory ransomware payment reporting requirements. This could change the calculus for local organisations as they seek to avoid the reputational risk of payments going public. Unfortunately, despite best efforts, there is no silver bullet to protect against every single cyberattack. You can't prevent the unpreventable. So the only thing that matters is how quickly you can recover. There are many reasons why the frequency of cyberattacks, like ransomware, are increasing. These include the rising use of AI by cybercriminals, more sophistication of attacks, significant financial incentives, uneasy geopolitical climates, digitisation of organisations, and the shortage of cybersecurity professionals. With this in mind, adopting a preemptive recovery posture - one that recognises a motivated attack will eventually be successful - organisations can take the initiative and recover faster than attackers can adapt. So, it is imperative to be prepared with a recovery plan. To prepare for the worst. To adopt an "assumed breach" mindset. In short, cyber resilience strategies reduce the severity of ransomware threats. Even if an organisation's systems are breached and held to ransom, secure backups ensure the business can quickly assess the scale of the breach, understand the scope of the compromise, and rapidly recover operations - all without paying a ransom. This will lead to a decline in Australian businesses paying out ransoms and perpetuating the cybercrime business model. If the nation is no longer seen as a soft target, if robbers never come away with any loot, they'll shift their attention elsewhere - or better yet, leave the looting life behind. Just like trains in the Wild West, businesses need multiple defences. Even if the thieves make it onto the train, past the guard and get through the locked door, it's not like valuables are out in the open waiting to be taken. They're in safes, requiring different keys and combinations to open. Cyber resilience strategies are an organisation's impenetrable safe - ensuring the crown jewels and critical backups needed to keep the train in motion are out of an attacker's reach. It wasn't too long ago that the criminal enterprise of choice would see thieves jump aboard a moving train, navigate the carriages, neutralise the guards, get through locked doors, and ransack the locomotive of its valuable jewels and gold. In 2025, there is a similar motive at play, but the heists have shifted from the Wild West to the World Wide Web. Cyberattacks are today's great train robberies and they're increasingly common. Recent research from Rubrik Zero Labs found 92 per cent of Australian organisations experienced a cyberattack last year, and the attackers are only growing more sophisticated. Ransomware is one of the most common types of cyberattacks, comprising 20 per cent of all attacks, and those behind them do not discriminate. According to the same Rubrik Zero Labs' research, attackers have evolved, with 78 per cent of Australian victims reporting the threat actors were able to at least partially harm backup and recovery options. In more than a third (35 per cent) of cases, the attackers were completely successful. Why are attackers targeting backups? If they can successfully compromise these critical data copies, the victim's ability to recover data under their own steam will be severely impacted. The thinking is, if they can take these down, then the victim will be forced to pay the ransom. And it's working. Rubrik Labs Research also found that of the Australian firms hit with a ransomware attack last year, more than 90 per cent paid the ransom to recover their data. While paying an attacker may allow a business to recover its data or stop a threat, it also supports the cybercrime business model. If a ransomware attack works once, what's going to stop it working again, and again, and again. Paying a ransom just fuels the fire. These payments may have previously gone unreported, however late last month the federal government introduced mandatory ransomware payment reporting requirements. This could change the calculus for local organisations as they seek to avoid the reputational risk of payments going public. Unfortunately, despite best efforts, there is no silver bullet to protect against every single cyberattack. You can't prevent the unpreventable. So the only thing that matters is how quickly you can recover. There are many reasons why the frequency of cyberattacks, like ransomware, are increasing. These include the rising use of AI by cybercriminals, more sophistication of attacks, significant financial incentives, uneasy geopolitical climates, digitisation of organisations, and the shortage of cybersecurity professionals. With this in mind, adopting a preemptive recovery posture - one that recognises a motivated attack will eventually be successful - organisations can take the initiative and recover faster than attackers can adapt. So, it is imperative to be prepared with a recovery plan. To prepare for the worst. To adopt an "assumed breach" mindset. In short, cyber resilience strategies reduce the severity of ransomware threats. Even if an organisation's systems are breached and held to ransom, secure backups ensure the business can quickly assess the scale of the breach, understand the scope of the compromise, and rapidly recover operations - all without paying a ransom. This will lead to a decline in Australian businesses paying out ransoms and perpetuating the cybercrime business model. If the nation is no longer seen as a soft target, if robbers never come away with any loot, they'll shift their attention elsewhere - or better yet, leave the looting life behind. Just like trains in the Wild West, businesses need multiple defences. Even if the thieves make it onto the train, past the guard and get through the locked door, it's not like valuables are out in the open waiting to be taken. They're in safes, requiring different keys and combinations to open. Cyber resilience strategies are an organisation's impenetrable safe - ensuring the crown jewels and critical backups needed to keep the train in motion are out of an attacker's reach. It wasn't too long ago that the criminal enterprise of choice would see thieves jump aboard a moving train, navigate the carriages, neutralise the guards, get through locked doors, and ransack the locomotive of its valuable jewels and gold. In 2025, there is a similar motive at play, but the heists have shifted from the Wild West to the World Wide Web. Cyberattacks are today's great train robberies and they're increasingly common. Recent research from Rubrik Zero Labs found 92 per cent of Australian organisations experienced a cyberattack last year, and the attackers are only growing more sophisticated. Ransomware is one of the most common types of cyberattacks, comprising 20 per cent of all attacks, and those behind them do not discriminate. According to the same Rubrik Zero Labs' research, attackers have evolved, with 78 per cent of Australian victims reporting the threat actors were able to at least partially harm backup and recovery options. In more than a third (35 per cent) of cases, the attackers were completely successful. Why are attackers targeting backups? If they can successfully compromise these critical data copies, the victim's ability to recover data under their own steam will be severely impacted. The thinking is, if they can take these down, then the victim will be forced to pay the ransom. And it's working. Rubrik Labs Research also found that of the Australian firms hit with a ransomware attack last year, more than 90 per cent paid the ransom to recover their data. While paying an attacker may allow a business to recover its data or stop a threat, it also supports the cybercrime business model. If a ransomware attack works once, what's going to stop it working again, and again, and again. Paying a ransom just fuels the fire. These payments may have previously gone unreported, however late last month the federal government introduced mandatory ransomware payment reporting requirements. This could change the calculus for local organisations as they seek to avoid the reputational risk of payments going public. Unfortunately, despite best efforts, there is no silver bullet to protect against every single cyberattack. You can't prevent the unpreventable. So the only thing that matters is how quickly you can recover. There are many reasons why the frequency of cyberattacks, like ransomware, are increasing. These include the rising use of AI by cybercriminals, more sophistication of attacks, significant financial incentives, uneasy geopolitical climates, digitisation of organisations, and the shortage of cybersecurity professionals. With this in mind, adopting a preemptive recovery posture - one that recognises a motivated attack will eventually be successful - organisations can take the initiative and recover faster than attackers can adapt. So, it is imperative to be prepared with a recovery plan. To prepare for the worst. To adopt an "assumed breach" mindset. In short, cyber resilience strategies reduce the severity of ransomware threats. Even if an organisation's systems are breached and held to ransom, secure backups ensure the business can quickly assess the scale of the breach, understand the scope of the compromise, and rapidly recover operations - all without paying a ransom. This will lead to a decline in Australian businesses paying out ransoms and perpetuating the cybercrime business model. If the nation is no longer seen as a soft target, if robbers never come away with any loot, they'll shift their attention elsewhere - or better yet, leave the looting life behind. Just like trains in the Wild West, businesses need multiple defences. Even if the thieves make it onto the train, past the guard and get through the locked door, it's not like valuables are out in the open waiting to be taken. They're in safes, requiring different keys and combinations to open. Cyber resilience strategies are an organisation's impenetrable safe - ensuring the crown jewels and critical backups needed to keep the train in motion are out of an attacker's reach.
The Advertiser
40 minutes ago
- The Advertiser
NATO agrees summit statement, defence spending goal
NATO countries have agreed a statement for their upcoming summit that sets a goal of five per cent of GDP for annual defence and security-related spending by 2035, overcoming objections from Spain, diplomats said. The statement has the green light from all 32 NATO members, diplomats said, but will only become official when it is approved by leaders including US President Donald Trump at their summit in The Hague on Wednesday. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez had blocked an earlier version of the text, saying that committing to a five per cent target would be unreasonable and counterproductive. Spain spent 1.24 per cent of GDP on defence in 2024, according to NATO estimates Diplomats overcame Sanchez's objections by adjusting the text on the spending pledge, changing the language from "we commit" to "allies commit", diplomats said on Sunday. That allowed Sanchez to claim the commitment would not apply to Spain. "We fully respect the legitimate desire of other countries to increase their defence investment, but we are not going to do so," Sanchez said in an address on Spanish television Sunday. NATO operates by consensus so all of its 32 members have to approve a statement for it to be adopted. NATO officials argue that big defence spending increases are needed to counter a growing threat from Russia and to allow Europe to take on more responsibility for its own security as the United States shifts its military focus to China. The alliance's current defence spending target is two per cent of GDP but Trump insisted it should rise to five per cent - although he suggested on Friday that target should not apply to the United States. Under a plan by NATO boss Mark Rutte, countries would reach five per cent of GDP by boosting their core defence spending goal from two to 3.5 per cent and spending a further 1.5 per cent on related items like adapting roads and bridges for military vehicles and cyber security. Rutte had originally proposed countries meet the new target by 2032 but the deadline in the final text is 2035, according to diplomats. There will also be a review of the target in 2029. NATO countries have agreed a statement for their upcoming summit that sets a goal of five per cent of GDP for annual defence and security-related spending by 2035, overcoming objections from Spain, diplomats said. The statement has the green light from all 32 NATO members, diplomats said, but will only become official when it is approved by leaders including US President Donald Trump at their summit in The Hague on Wednesday. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez had blocked an earlier version of the text, saying that committing to a five per cent target would be unreasonable and counterproductive. Spain spent 1.24 per cent of GDP on defence in 2024, according to NATO estimates Diplomats overcame Sanchez's objections by adjusting the text on the spending pledge, changing the language from "we commit" to "allies commit", diplomats said on Sunday. That allowed Sanchez to claim the commitment would not apply to Spain. "We fully respect the legitimate desire of other countries to increase their defence investment, but we are not going to do so," Sanchez said in an address on Spanish television Sunday. NATO operates by consensus so all of its 32 members have to approve a statement for it to be adopted. NATO officials argue that big defence spending increases are needed to counter a growing threat from Russia and to allow Europe to take on more responsibility for its own security as the United States shifts its military focus to China. The alliance's current defence spending target is two per cent of GDP but Trump insisted it should rise to five per cent - although he suggested on Friday that target should not apply to the United States. Under a plan by NATO boss Mark Rutte, countries would reach five per cent of GDP by boosting their core defence spending goal from two to 3.5 per cent and spending a further 1.5 per cent on related items like adapting roads and bridges for military vehicles and cyber security. Rutte had originally proposed countries meet the new target by 2032 but the deadline in the final text is 2035, according to diplomats. There will also be a review of the target in 2029. NATO countries have agreed a statement for their upcoming summit that sets a goal of five per cent of GDP for annual defence and security-related spending by 2035, overcoming objections from Spain, diplomats said. The statement has the green light from all 32 NATO members, diplomats said, but will only become official when it is approved by leaders including US President Donald Trump at their summit in The Hague on Wednesday. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez had blocked an earlier version of the text, saying that committing to a five per cent target would be unreasonable and counterproductive. Spain spent 1.24 per cent of GDP on defence in 2024, according to NATO estimates Diplomats overcame Sanchez's objections by adjusting the text on the spending pledge, changing the language from "we commit" to "allies commit", diplomats said on Sunday. That allowed Sanchez to claim the commitment would not apply to Spain. "We fully respect the legitimate desire of other countries to increase their defence investment, but we are not going to do so," Sanchez said in an address on Spanish television Sunday. NATO operates by consensus so all of its 32 members have to approve a statement for it to be adopted. NATO officials argue that big defence spending increases are needed to counter a growing threat from Russia and to allow Europe to take on more responsibility for its own security as the United States shifts its military focus to China. The alliance's current defence spending target is two per cent of GDP but Trump insisted it should rise to five per cent - although he suggested on Friday that target should not apply to the United States. Under a plan by NATO boss Mark Rutte, countries would reach five per cent of GDP by boosting their core defence spending goal from two to 3.5 per cent and spending a further 1.5 per cent on related items like adapting roads and bridges for military vehicles and cyber security. Rutte had originally proposed countries meet the new target by 2032 but the deadline in the final text is 2035, according to diplomats. There will also be a review of the target in 2029. NATO countries have agreed a statement for their upcoming summit that sets a goal of five per cent of GDP for annual defence and security-related spending by 2035, overcoming objections from Spain, diplomats said. The statement has the green light from all 32 NATO members, diplomats said, but will only become official when it is approved by leaders including US President Donald Trump at their summit in The Hague on Wednesday. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez had blocked an earlier version of the text, saying that committing to a five per cent target would be unreasonable and counterproductive. Spain spent 1.24 per cent of GDP on defence in 2024, according to NATO estimates Diplomats overcame Sanchez's objections by adjusting the text on the spending pledge, changing the language from "we commit" to "allies commit", diplomats said on Sunday. That allowed Sanchez to claim the commitment would not apply to Spain. "We fully respect the legitimate desire of other countries to increase their defence investment, but we are not going to do so," Sanchez said in an address on Spanish television Sunday. NATO operates by consensus so all of its 32 members have to approve a statement for it to be adopted. NATO officials argue that big defence spending increases are needed to counter a growing threat from Russia and to allow Europe to take on more responsibility for its own security as the United States shifts its military focus to China. The alliance's current defence spending target is two per cent of GDP but Trump insisted it should rise to five per cent - although he suggested on Friday that target should not apply to the United States. Under a plan by NATO boss Mark Rutte, countries would reach five per cent of GDP by boosting their core defence spending goal from two to 3.5 per cent and spending a further 1.5 per cent on related items like adapting roads and bridges for military vehicles and cyber security. Rutte had originally proposed countries meet the new target by 2032 but the deadline in the final text is 2035, according to diplomats. There will also be a review of the target in 2029.
News.com.au
2 hours ago
- News.com.au
Oil stocks likely ‘well in the negative' after US strikes on Iran
CommSec's Tom Piotrowski believes oil stocks will be 'well in the negative' on Monday following the United States' military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend. The US has attacked three nuclear sites in Iran in what President Donald Trump has described as a spectacular military success. 'Oil prices, as you very much pointed out, are very much in focus,' Mr Piotrowski told Sky News Australia. 'The chokepoints in the Strait of Hormuz is really the area that many energy analysts will be playing very close attention to over the course of the coming days. 'You see, up to about a quarter of the global seaborn energy traffic goes through that chokepoint, so it can have a very swift impact on things if you start seeing military activity around that point. 'You would imagine stocks will be well in the negative today.'
