Stocks to buy or sell: Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities suggests buying HAL shares on 28 April 2025

Stock market today: The domestic benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex, made a modest climb at the start of trading on Monday, buoyed by stronger-than-anticipated earnings from major player Reliance Industries and favorable signals from Asian markets, although increasing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan limited the rise.
The Sensex surged by 456.05 points to reach 79,668.58 in early trading, while the Nifty 50 gained 112.85 points, totaling 24,152.20.
Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, mentioned that the increased uncertainty surrounding Indo-Pak tensions will impact the markets. It is quite challenging to determine the extent to which the market has factored this in. Based on the market's resilience, it appears that the possibility of these tensions escalating into a war has not been fully incorporated into market expectations.
It is crucial to note that markets often have a remarkable capacity to rise despite various concerns.
A significant factor behind the market's resilience is the continuous buying by FIIs, totaling ₹ 32,465 crores over the past eight days. FIIs have shifted to being consistent buyers, marking a sharp reversal from their previous selling approach. This change is largely influenced by the relative underperformance of US stocks, US bonds, and the dollar.
Equity benchmark pared initial gains tracking geopolitical worries. Nifty 50 settled the week at 24,039, up 0.6%. Broader market relatively outperformed as Midcap gained 1.5%. Meanwhile, beaten down IT index staged a strong recovery post Q4 earnings, up 7% for the week. The weekly price action formed a small bull candle with long upper shadow, indicating profit booking at higher levels after recent sharp up move. However, formation of higher high-low signifies that broader uptrend remains intact. In the upcoming truncated week, we expect volatility to remain elevated tracking geopolitical worries wherein Nifty 50 is likely to consolidate in the broader range of 24,500-23,300 zone. We believe, over past two months index has formed a durable bottom. Hence, ongoing breather would help index to form higher base by cooling off the overbought condition after 12% rally seen over past three weeks and make market healthy. Over past three decades there have been three major instances of escalations due to armed conflicts in India (i.e. Kargil War, 26/11, Pulwama attack). On each occasion, it formed major bottom once anxiety around the event settled down and garnered decent returns in subsequent three months. Even in current scenario, possibility of knee-jerk reaction on escalation of geopolitical worries cannot be ruled out. However, historical evidences suggest that market would eventually stabilise. Hence, we advise not to panic but rather build quality portfolios from medium to long term perspective amid ongoing earning season. The blend of following parameters makes us believe that the index has formed a durable bottom. Tracking the historical data, benchmark index has staged a strong rebound after approaching the price and time wise correction. Key point to highlight is that, the current up move is backed by the faster pace of retracement, indicating structural turnaround that has been further validated by significant improvement in momentum, breadth as well as sentiment indicators. Amidst ongoing volatility, following are the key monitorable which would act as tailwind:
a) Bilateral Trade Agreement between India and US
b) Continuation of FII's inflow
c) Further weakness in US Dollar index post breakdown from two years consolidation
d) Decline in Brent crude oil prices
6. We expect volatility to prevail amid ongoing global uncertainty coupled with geopolitical worries. However, recent faster pace of retracement clearly indicates structural improvement that makes us revise support base upward at 23,300 which is 38.2% retracement of the move from (21,743-24,359) coincided with 200 days EMA placed at 23,405.
Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities recommends Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL).
1) Buy HAL in the range of ₹ 4,140-4,240 for the target of ₹ 4,698 with a stop loss of ₹ 3,914.
Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 25/04/2025 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

The Hindu

30 minutes ago

• The Hindu

Markets slump on heightened tensions in Middle East; Sensex drops 500 points

Stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled on Monday (June 23, 2025), as intensifying tensions in the Middle East after the U.S. bombed three major nuclear sites in Iran unnerved investors. After losing over 900 points in day trade, the 30-share index recovered some lost ground to close with a loss of 511.38 points or 0.62% at 81,896.79. During the day, it tumbled 931.41 points or 1.13% to 81,476.76. The 50-share NSE Nifty dropped 140.50 points or 0.56% to 24,971.90. The U.S. bombed three major nuclear sites – Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan – in Iran, directly engaging itself in the Israel-Iran conflict. From the Sensex pack, HCL Tech, Infosys, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Consultancy Services and Maruti were the biggest laggards. In contrast, Trent, Bharat Electronics, Bajaj Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the gainers. In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi and Japan's Nikkei 225 index settled lower, while Shanghai's SSE Composite index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended higher. European markets were trading lower in mid-session. U.S. markets ended mostly lower on Friday (June 20, 2025). Global oil benchmark Brent crude climbed 0.49% to $77.39 a barrel. 'Last Friday (June 20, 2025), markets buildup in anticipation of easing Middle East tensions, following the U.S. announcement of a two-week window to deliberate its involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. However, the unexpected U.S. airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend disrupted those expectations, triggering a sharp rise in crude oil prices and leading to consolidation in the domestic equity market,' Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, said. 'Despite the initial setback, the market recovered some of its losses, supported by gains in capital goods and metal stocks, as fears of an immediate oil supply disruption remained low,' he added. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought equities worth ₹7,940.70 crore on Friday (June 20, 2025), according to exchange data. On Friday (June 20, 2025), the 30-share BSE Sensex surged 1,046.30 points or 1.29% to settle at 82,408.17. The Nifty climbed 319.15 points or 1.29% to 25,112.40.

Mint

31 minutes ago

• Mint

FPIs turn sellers in June after 2-month buying streak. Will Iran-Israel tensions trigger more outflows?

Stock market today: Rising tensions in the Middle East appear to have caught the attention of overseas investors, who turned bearish on the Indian stock market in June after two consecutive months of net purchases. FPIs have alternated between buying and selling so far this month but have largely stayed on the sidelines in most sessions, withdrawing ₹ 4,192 crore through exchanges, according to NSDL data. The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel — with the U.S. now officially entering the war by launching attacks on Iran alongside Israel — has brought fresh concerns to Indian stock market, impacting the sentiment of overseas investors, especially as Indian stock market are already viewed as expensive compared to other Asian peers. Despite continued FPI selling, the Indian stock market has remained resilient in June so far, with both front-line indices gaining nearly 1%, thanks to strong support from domestic institutional investors (DIIs), primarily driven by mutual funds. DIIs acquired shares worth over ₹ 59,000 crore in June so far, following net purchases of ₹ 66,194 crore in May. Mutual funds alone contributed more than ₹ 35,900 crore in June, compared to ₹ 53,260 crore in the previous month. Although FPI inflows have fluctuated over the past six months, strong domestic buying has helped sustain market momentum — even amid heightened geopolitical tensions, global trade war concerns, and rich valuations. FPIs turned into net buyers in April by infusing ₹ 4,223 crore, according to the depositories data. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) had pulled out ₹ 3,973 crore in March, ₹ 34,574 crore in February, and a substantial ₹ 78,027 crore in January. Dr. V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said, "After a big buy figure of ₹ 19,860 crore in May, FIIs turned less confident in June, with bouts of selling and buying. Net FII activity in June till the 20th is a sell figure of ₹ 4,192 crore (NSDL)." He added that in the first half of June, FIIs were sellers in FMCG, power, consumer durables, and IT sectors, while they were buyers in financials, chemicals, capital goods, and real estate. 'The buying reflects fair valuations and good prospects in those segments, while the selling points to relatively high valuations and diminished outlook in others,' he explained. FIIs have also remained net sellers in the debt market. 'The yield differential between U.S. and Indian sovereign bonds is at a historic low of around 2%. Given the currency risk, investing in Indian bonds doesn't make sense currently, and this trend of FPI selling in bonds is likely to continue,' Dr. Vijayakumar noted. Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director – Listed Investments at Waterfield Advisors, stated that the trend of Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) reversed in April and strengthened considerably in May, marked by positive inflows. The inflows in May were the highest in eight months, indicating a resurgence of interest from foreign investors in Indian markets. However, he noted that geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, along with broader global uncertainties, have led to a cautiously optimistic approach in June. He added that improving domestic fundamentals and a favorable long-term growth outlook suggest that, if global conditions stabilize, India could witness more sustained and stable FPI inflows in the future. Vijayakumar, echoed this view, stating that global uncertainty dominated by geopolitics — particularly the war in West Asia — will continue to shape FPI activity going forward. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Economic Times

an hour ago

• Economic Times

Walmart-backed PhonePe may seek $1.5 billion in Indian IPO

(What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price