Under attack from Israel, Iran's supreme leader faces a stark choice

In a video address Wednesday he sounded defiant, vowing 'the Iranian nation is not one to surrender' and warning that if the US steps in, it will bring 'irreparable damage to them.'
Here's what to know about Khamenei:
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He transformed the Islamic Republic
When he rose to power in 1989, Khamenei had to overcome deep doubts about his authority as he succeeded the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. A low-level cleric at the time, Khamenei didn't have his predecessor's religious credentials. With his thick glasses and plodding style, he didn't have his fiery charisma either.
But Khamenei has ruled three times longer than the late Khomeini and has shaped Iran's Islamic Republic perhaps even more dramatically.
He entrenched the system of rule by the 'mullahs,' or Shiite Muslim clerics. That secured his place in the eyes of hard-liners as the unquestionable authority — below only that of God. At the same time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant force in Iran's military and internal politics.
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The Guard boasts Iran's most elite military and oversees its ballistic missile program. Its international arm, the Quds Force, pieced together the 'Axis of Resistance,' the collection of pro-Iranian proxies stretching from Yemen to Lebanon that for years gave Iran considerable power across the region. Khamenei also gave the Guard a free hand to build a network of businesses allowing it to dominate Iran's economy.
In return, the Guard became his loyal shock force.
He fended off domestic challenges
The first major threat to Khamenei's grip was the reform movement that swept into a parliament majority and the presidency soon after he became supreme leader. The movement advocated for giving greater power to elected officials – something Khamenei's hard-line supporters feared would lead to dismantling the Islamic Republic system.
Khamenei stymied the reformists by rallying the clerical establishment. Unelected bodies run by the mullahs succeeded in shutting down major reforms and barring reform candidates from running in elections.
The Revolutionary Guard and Iran's other security agencies crushed waves of protests that followed the failure of the reform movement. Huge nationwide protests erupted in 2009 over allegations of vote-rigging. Under the weight of sanctions, economic protests broke out in 2017 and 2019. More nationwide protests broke out in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini after police detained her for not wearing her mandatory headscarf properly.
Hundreds were killed in crackdowns on the protests, and hundreds more arrested amid reports of detainees tortured to death or raped in prison.
Still, the successive protests showed the strains in Iran's theocratic system and lay bare widespread resentment of clerical rule, corruption and economic troubles. Trying to defuse anger, authorities often eased enforcement of some of the Islamic Republic's social restrictions.
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He built Iran into a regional power
When Khamenei took power, Iran was just emerging from its long war with Iraq that left the country battered and isolated.
Over the next three decades, Khamenei turned Iran around into as assertive power wielding influence across the Middle East. One major boost was the U.S.'s 2003 ouster of Saddam Hussein, which eventually brought Iranian-allied Shiite politicians and militias to power in Iraq.
Iraq provided a linchpin in Iran's Axis of Resistance, grouping Bashar Assad's Syria, Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Palestinian militant group Hamas and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. By 2015, the alliance was at its height, putting Iran on Israel's doorstep.
The past two years brought a dramatic reversal
Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel brought massive Israeli retaliation on the Gaza Strip. It also brought a turnaround in Israeli policy. After years of trying to fend off and tamp down Iran's allies, Israel made crushing them its goal. Hamas has been crippled, though not eliminated, even at the cost of the decimation of Gaza.
Israel has similarly sidelined Hezbollah — at least for the moment — with weeks of bombardment in Lebanon last year, along with a dramatic attack with booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies that stunned the group. An even heavier blow to Hezbollah was the fall in December of Assad when Sunni rebels marched on the capital and removed him from power. Now, a government hostile to Iran and Hezbollah rules from Damascus.
Iran's Axis of Resistance is at its lowest ebb ever.

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CNN

32 minutes ago

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On Thursday, Defense Minister Israel Katz went further, declaring that Khamenei cannot be allowed to 'continue to exist' after an Iranian missile struck a hospital in Israel. Iran is a nation of more than 90 million people and home one of the world's oldest continuous civilizations. Its borders have remained more or less stable for about 100 years. The Islamic Republic has managed to preserve those frontiers despite a diverse population of ethnic and religious groups, many of whom have sought autonomy at various points. But the comments from Israeli and US officials have prompted speculation over what Iran might look like if Khamenei is killed – with experts warning that the country could face a range of scenarios, including regime collapse or even civil war. The 86-year-old cleric has ruled Iran for more than 35 years as its highest authority, rising to power a decade after the 1979 Islamic Revolution overthrew a US-backed monarch. Over the years, he consolidated power and ruled with an iron grip under strict Islamic law. He crushed wave after wave of protests demanding social freedoms – each with increasing ferocity – and expanded Iran's reach far beyond its borders through a network of proxy militias. With his fate in question, attention is turning to who might succeed him, and how that uncertainty could unleash greater unrest. The Supreme Leader is elected by the 88-member Assembly of Experts for life and doesn't officially name a successor. It is unclear who might replace Khamenei, but that process may take place as separatist groups who have long resented the Islamic Republic seek to take advantage of what they may see as an opportunity. Israel has already killed several of Iran's key military figures, and experts say that the regime is now at its weakest. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, said that regime change would require Israel or the United States having a figure in mind to replace Khamenei and send troops to the country. The figure Israel is likely to favor is Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of the deposed Iranian monarch who was ousted in 1979. Pahlavi has voiced support for Israel's actions, drawing praise from some in the Iranian diaspora and accusations of betrayal from many others. 'Soon in Tehran,' Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli posted on X on Friday, along with a picture of himself shaking hands with a smiling Pahlavi. Pahlavi told BBC News on Sunday that Israel's conflict with Iran was an opportunity to bring down the Iranian regime. If the Supreme Leader is killed and the Guardian Council delays naming a successor, the risk of instability could grow, experts say. A possible outcome of Khamenei's potential killing is total regime collapse, Parsi said. 'Regime collapse is just to collapse the state, and let the chaos that ensues fester,' Parsi told CNN. Several scenarios could ensue if the Iranian regime falls, none of which is expected to be to the liking of the US or neighboring states, experts said. Hamed Mousavi, associate professor of International Relations at the University of Tehran, warned that military intervention 'rarely leads to democratization.' 'Look at the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan… Both countries were unstable for many years,' Mousavi told CNN, adding that Iran is 'even more complicated' than those nations. One outcome could be that other elements in the Iranian military assume power. They are unlikely to seek diplomatic routes with Israel or the US, but could take a more hawkish approach that sees possession of a nuclear bomb as the only deterrent to more attacks, Parsi said. Military factions that could take over are 'not going to be the type of regime that the US may have had in mind,' Parsi said. Another possible scenario is descent into chaos, as Iran's multiple ethnic groups vie for power. Iran has a diverse population, including Persians, Azeris, Arabs, Baloch and Kurds. Under Khamenei's decades-long rule, the Islamic Republic largely managed to contain civil and ethnic unrest, despite the mistreatment faced by some groups. Minorities faced discrimination in 'their access to education, employment, adequate housing and political office,' according to Amnesty International last year. 'Continued underinvestment in regions populated by ethnic minorities exacerbated poverty and marginalization,' it said. Azeris make up around 16% of Iran's overall population, according to Minority Rights Group. The Shiite group is the largest and most well-integrated minority in the Islamic Republic but has nonetheless faced inequity. Arabs constitute up to 4 million people, and they have also been subjected to marginalization over the years. A group of tribes speaking the Balochi language, the Baloch people make up nearly 5 million of Iran's population. The predominantly Sunni group extends into neighboring Pakistan and Afghanistan, raising the possibility of separatist conflict spilling over the borders. The 'Army of Justice' organization, a Baloch Sunni militant group, has shown support for Israel's strikes on Iran, saying in a statement: 'It is clear that the current attack is not on Iran, but on the Velayat-e-Faqih (ruling) regime , it is God's will that the ground has been prepared for us, the people of Iran, to make the best use of this vacuum.' Kurds make up some 10% of Iran's population and are mostly settled along the borders with Iraq and Turkey. They have been subject to 'deep-rooted discrimination,' Amnesty said. The Kurdistan Freedom Party, a nationalist and separatist militant group in Iran, published a statement backing Israel's strikes, saying it supports 'the process of destroying Iran's military and security capabilities.' A Kurdish rebellion in Iran would also be a major concern for neighboring Iraq and Turkey, both of which have large Kurdish minorities that have sought independence. Another exiled group that has garnered support from US conservatives is the Mujahadin-e Khalq (MeK), a shadowy dissident group that was once a US-designated terrorist organization but today counts prominent anti-Iran politicians as key allies. Iran accuses it of terrorism, saying it carried out a series of attacks in the 1980s. The MeK denies those charges. It is one of the best-organized opposition groups confronting the Islamic Republic, but it has little support among Iranians, largely due to its violent past and for having supported Iraqi President Saddam Hussein during his almost decade-long war with Iran. If Iran's regime falls, 'there would be support for ethnic separatist groups by the Israelis, and perhaps the US,' Parsi said. This would lead to a situation where remnants of the state are going to be consumed with fighting separatists. Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, executive director of the Nonviolent Initiative for Democracy and a former Iranian lawmaker who opposes the current regime, expressed fears that Iran may descend into civil conflict if the current rule falls. 'I would like to get rid of this regime. I am the opposition,' she told CNN's Becky Anderson. 'My main concern is… I see the signs (of) civil war.'