How bitcoin price's newest source of long-term support is evolving
Bitcoin may have come off the all-time high it hit in May, but the cryptocurrency is still trading above $100,000, and doing so with more consistency. Bitcoin recently held above $100,000 for 30 days, even with a 10% pullback, the first time that's ever happened. A look at the bitcoin price chart this years show that it has more or less been through a V-shaped recovery, with its early gains wiped out but a sharp turn back up to the recent all-time high, close to where it remains today.
Plenty of reasons are offered for the ups and down in what has always been a volatile trade, but the biggest bitcoin ETF manager and a financial advisor who follows the cryptocurrency closely say that one source of price support that is new and won't go away is the steady, if cautious, adoption of bitcoin by financial advisors and institutional investors.
After a recent week during which bitcoin ETFs suffered outflows, the bigger story remains the significant inflows this year. At iShares, the Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had its second-highest monthly flows ever in May, at $6 billion. This year, the ETF has taken in close to $12 billion in all, and over every short-term time period — one-week ($600 million), one-month ($4.8 billion), three-month ($9.6 billion), the flows are up.
"The iShares bitcoin ETF numbers are remarkable," Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, an investment advisor that focused on using ETFs for portfolio construction and management, said during a recent CNBC "ETF Edge" segment.
It's not just the $6 billion May month he was referring to, but the fact that day-in and day-out the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has been taking in money and is among the top five ETFs in flows across the entire industry this year. "It's only been on the market for 17 months and it's at $70 billion," Geraci said — $72 billion, as of June 12.
Geraci says what is taking place in the market relates to a few factors. Becoming decoupled from the broader markets in recent weeks has helped to make a case for the asset class as one with lower correlation to other assets. But is also a testament to how financial advisors and institutional investors adopt a new asset class and, over time, they are becoming "much more comfortable with the idea of owning bitcoin in a diversified portfolio," he said.
"It's a process with any new asset class," Geraci said. "Advisors and institutions don't just jump in without looking. There is education and a due diligence process and now we're hitting the point where investors are becoming more comfortable," he added.
At No. 5 in flows among all ETFs year-to-date, it's only the two giant S&P 500 ETFs, VOO and SPY, an ultrashort treasuries ETF, SGOV, and the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, that are ahead of the iShares Bitcoin Trust.
Jay Jacobs, who heads the U.S. equity ETF business at iShares, said there are three stages with any new asset class: product launch, which provides the access, followed by the education, and then the third stage of implementation, "people taking the leap to allocate."
"We've seen institutions and advisors making allocation," he said. "So around stages two and three, we are very deep into those stages. We're starting to see really good tailwinds in implementation," he added.
Jacobs noted that even within BlackRock, asset allocation models run by the firm on behalf of its clients have begun to incorporate the bitcoin ETF as part of alternative investment models that behave "very differently from traditional assets. ... more people are really looking for global monetary alternatives."
The action in iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) has also been strong, second only to iShares bitcoin ETF this year in flows, with close to $1.5 billion year-to-date into the fund.
Jacobs was cautious about comparing other coins to the stage of implementation with bitcoin among investors, but he did say, "What's changed in the last month are flows into the ethereum ETF," speaking to the majority of that $1 billion-plus increase coming within the last month. He also noted that trade may be more related to short-term factors — better performance for ethereum after a difficult start to the year, stablecoin policy momentum as a tailwind, and an upgrade to the ethereum protocol itself.
"Bitcoin is still the vast majority of the conversation from client talks and the interest among professional investors, but we have started to see ethereum really pick up as well," Jacobs said.
Geraci is of the view that it's too early in the ethereum uptake within the ETF market to compare it to the education process that has taken place with bitcoin. "I view it more as a tech play than bitcoin, which many view as digital gold. It takes time for advisors and investors to get comfortable with where it fits in a diversified portfolio. It's very early quite frankly," he said.
One trend Geraci is certain of is that there will be more crypto ETFs coming. "We have a much more crypto friendly SEC and we will see a wave of crypto-related ETFs coming to market and a lot more options to wade through," he said.
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