Phillies trade deadline: Answering 9 key questions, plus pondering Kyle Schwarber's future
Matt Gelb discussed Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Otto Kemp and various Phillies prospects and topics during a wide-ranging live Q&A with The Athletic subscribers on Tuesday. But, unsurprisingly, most of the questions centered on how the team will approach the July 31 trade deadline.
Here are some highlights from Tuesday's live discussion: nine answers to key Phillies trade deadline questions, along with Matt's thoughts on impending free agent Kyle Schwarber's future.
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To see answers to many more Phillies questions, read the full Q&A.
(Questions and answers have been edited for clarity and length.)
1. Who is your dream trade deadline acquisition for the Phillies? — Luke W.
I'll go with a dream 'profile' because, to me, it's rather unclear which teams will be selling in late July.
They need a right-handed reliever with a high strikeout rate and, preferably, one with a palatable walk rate. The bullpen enters Tuesday ranked 15th in MLB in strikeout rate. It needs to be higher — especially with the less-than-great defense the Phillies feature. The bullpen was so dominant last season because their relievers struck out batters at one of the highest rates in the sport.
The Phillies are missing a lot of that in 2025.
You can dream on specific pitchers who fit this profile and may or may not be available in July. The division to monitor, I think, is the American League Central. The Twins have Griffin Jax (probably the reliever who would top my list) and Jhoan Duran. Maybe Cleveland would flip one of its many high-strikeout relievers — Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis are (top 22) in K% among MLB relievers. Kansas City has Lucas Erceg, who throws hard.
It's just hard to know who will be available and who won't. There is not a lot of separation among the AL's middle class. These Central teams might be compelled to go for it. Look what the Tigers did last year.
2. Interesting that you say they need a right-handed reliever. With José Alvarado out for the postseason, I would think a left-handed reliever beyond Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks would be a high priority. Why do you think a righty is a higher priority? — Bill W.
Because I think one of the three lefties in the current rotation (Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, Jesús Luzardo) will be pitching as a reliever in October.
3. Is there any talk of selling Ranger or Mick Abel to get a reliever or a right-handed power bat? (The Phillies would) be trading from a position of having a ton of depth, which other teams would be desperate for. — Liam B.
I have a hard time seeing them flip Suárez when they know he could help them as a starter or a reliever and, if they keep him, they throw a qualifying offer on him (after the season) and he nets them a 2026 compensatory draft pick (if he signs with another team in free agency).
4. Do you think Abel stays with the Phillies or becomes a key trade piece? I imagine it all depends on how they view Ranger long term but I'd be curious as to your thoughts. — James W.
Perhaps the biggest question the Phillies must answer in the next six weeks, James. A lot of it will depend on Aaron Nola's progress from his various injuries. If the Phillies have doubts about his ability to contribute in August and September, it might compel them to keep Abel. But they know Andrew Painter is coming. And, while Abel has pitched well in the majors, I do think he represents their best trade chip.
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Think about it: Even if they retain Abel, he still projects to be on the outside of the rotation picture for 2026 (Zack Wheeler, Nola, Sánchez, Luzardo, Painter). If other teams believe in Abel's adjustments, this might be the highest his trade value goes. All of that said, you're not just jettisoning a potential mid-rotation pitcher. This is a tough one for them to tackle.
5. In your recent trade deadline article, you mentioned that Eduardo Tait could be available. If they move Tait, could that mean that Realmuto is eventually re-signed? They are thin at the catching position and (the potential) free agents are not desirable. — Anthony Z.
I don't see Tait and Realmuto as linked. Even if the Phillies do not re-sign Realmuto, Tait needs at least three more years in the minors. He's so raw behind the plate. It will take time. So they could re-sign Realmuto to a two-year deal and Tait still wouldn't be ready by the time that new contract is done.
Remember, Tait does not turn 19 until August.
6. Which top prospect do you think is most likely to be traded at the deadline? — David L.
My unscientific ranking:
1. Mick Abel
2. Eduardo Tait
3. Jean Cabrera
7. What do you think is an 'acceptable' deadline for the Phillies this year? Also, what do you expect them to do relative to what is 'acceptable'? — Drew B.
Acceptable, to me, is acquiring a reliever who you expect to use in high-leverage October situations and a better right-handed platoon bat for the outfield. I expect them to acquire those pieces; the question is whether they pick the right ones.
8. Given the decreasing number of teams selling at the deadline and the accordingly higher costs, why not sign another reliever or two in December? — Brian R.
This, to me, was the Phillies' greatest misstep. They went into the season with José Ruiz as their fifth reliever. I thought he was a non-tender candidate over the offseason, but they viewed him as integral to the plan. That was … not great. They did not create enough bullpen competition for the spring. They have been trying to add depth through waiver claims and small trades ever since. It was not a good offseason for them in terms of the bullpen.
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9. What is the highest level of prospect you sense the Phillies would move at the deadline? Although they have signaled it is kind of a 'gap year,' I don't think fans would accept another marginal bullpen move and another marginal bench-piece move. If not now, when? Would Dave Dombrowski go for it this year? Very interested in your sense of their urgency to be World Series contenders this year. — Brendan B.
I am not sure what sort of 'impact-type' moves are going to be made at the trade deadline across the entire league. Teams typically do not trade top talents, unless they are on expiring deals, at the deadline. Rafael Devers is probably the best hitter who will be traded during the season, and obviously, there were a lot of layers to that one. Let's say the Braves continue to tumble and decide to flip Chris Sale. I doubt he's going to anyone in the NL East.
The Diamondbacks could have some bigger pieces to move, but then again, they could continue to stay on the edges of the race. They have a huge payroll; it will be tough for them to just punt.
The Phillies have held onto Painter, Aidan Miller and Justin Crawford despite interest from other clubs. They were willing to part with one of (or even both) Miller and Crawford last summer for Garrett Crochet. That never materialized. They went and cashed in a decent chip with Starlyn Caba to acquire Luzardo from the Marlins in the offseason. In general, I think teams are wary of using top prospects to acquire a reliever in July.
I disagree with the general idea that the Phillies 'haven't gone for it.' They have one of the highest payrolls in baseball. They have made aggressive deadline trades in previous years, surrendering second- and third-tier prospects. To me, there are usually outsized expectations about what the trade deadline can bring — especially with the expanded postseason. Fewer teams are outright sellers.
Are you hearing anything on an extension for Schwarber? I can't imagine them letting this guy go. Give him the money, let him retire as a Phillie, then go onto the Wall of Fame. — Stonewall B.
I do not believe anything has changed since spring training. The two sides talked. They had a general idea of where each other stood. Neither was willing to bridge the gap. And I get that. From Schwarber's perspective, he wants to bet on himself this close to reaching free agency. Fair.
And, from the Phillies' perspective, they want to see how many clubs are interested in a DH who will be 33 next season. As good as Schwarber is — on and off the field — it's a profile that hasn't generated a ton of demand in recent years. You could probably eliminate 15 to 20 teams already who will not sign a 33-year-old DH to a multiyear deal. Most clubs do not commit to a 'set' DH.
Now, you think about some of the bigger-market clubs: The Dodgers have a DH; the Yankees have Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton; the Mets might want to keep the DH spot open for Juan Soto in a year or two; Houston has Yordan Alvarez.
A few teams stick out: Reds, Rangers, Cubs … Red Sox? Boston has money committed to Masataka Yoshida, but perhaps moving on from Rafael Devers makes the Sox a player for Schwarber. My feeling is the Phillies will let the market for Schwarber develop, then match it.
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