We HATE to bother you on your precious weekend, Albo, but the world's on fire: PETER VAN ONSELEN on the real reasons PM and Penny Wong are so uncomfortable about the US strikes on Iran

They do say you should wait 24 hours before making big decisions, especially when they go against your natural instincts.
But Australia's delay in supporting US bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend wasn't a simple case of a slow moving government taking its God-given time.
When Donald Trump ordered targeted strikes on Iran most of America's key allies knew exactly what was required: a prompt show of support.
The UK and EU delivered, endorsing the importance of preventing Iran developing nuclear weapons.
Australia did not.
Instead, Penny Wong and Anthony Albanese reached for a generic line about 'de-escalation and diplomacy', issued by an unnamed government spokesperson, ahead of any official statements out of London or Brussels.
It was a misfire, both diplomatically and politically.
And worst of all it was entirely avoidable, giving at least the impression that even tacit support might not be forthcoming.
The government's explanation? They were waiting until the National Security Committee could meet on Monday, with the PM due to speak afterwards.
In a moment that called for decisive alignment with our closest ally Australia defaulted to bureaucratic procedure.
It is a Monday-to-Friday government in a world that increasingly demands responsiveness around the clock.
Former PM Scott Morrison took to morning radio today to point out that he regularly called national security meetings over the weekend on important issues.
What was so important this past weekend that Albo and Wong couldn't do the same?
There's nothing inherently wrong with caution, of course. In complex security situations there's value in waiting 24 hours before making sweeping public statements. It probably doesn't happen often enough in modern politics.
But the government didn't stay silent. As the Prime Minister noted today - responding to criticism - 'we issued a statement yesterday'. They said something very quickly, and it turned out to be out of step with our allies - they misread the room by trying to get ahead of the story and conform with their ideological opposition.
They wouldn't be alone in their discomfort on this issue. Trump remains a deeply divisive figure across much of the West. But this wasn't about Trump's domestic politics or his often offensive adversarial style. It was about enforcing red lines on nuclear proliferation, regardless of who sits in the Oval Office.
Others understood that, Australia did not, and the misstep could well come with consequences for AUKUS and other entwined relations with the US during the Trump era.
Endorsing American military action, particularly under Trump, cuts against Albo and Wong's political instincts. They hail from the now dominant Left wing of the Labor party.
That same wing persuaded Simon Crean, as opposition leader, to oppose Australian involvement in the Iraq war at the beginning of this century when John Howard pledged his support to George W Bush.
Australia's alliance with the United States isn't conditional on who the president is. If anything, it matters more when the president is unpredictable to affirm our historical ties to the US to help preserve them, years from now, when Trump is gone.
Allies as a general rule shouldn't hedge their bets as Albo and Wong tried to do.
Trump almost certainly would have noticed the slight. He rewards loyalty and punishes perceived indifference. Whether that's fair or wise is ultimately somewhat beside the point. It's how he operates.
The government eventually walked back its initial response, with Wong this morning pledging Australian support in more forthright terms that either the UK or EU had done over the weekend, probably to make up for the misstep. And doing so before the all important National Security Committee meeting anyway.
Wong told Channel Nine she backed the attack: 'We support action to prevent Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon', she said, adding 'and that is what this is.'
It is no hanging offence from Wong.
But it is a clear mistake, and one that reinforces the growing view that this government struggles when events fall outside its curated schedule.
Albanese wants to run a stable, measured administration. Fair enough.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Sky News

29 minutes ago

• Sky News

Israel-Iran live: Blast 'destroys prison gates' as Israeli strikes target 'heart of Tehran'; Iran's supreme leader sends letter to Putin

Israel has targeted Iran's Fordow nuclear site, after the US bombed the facility at the weekend, while also apparently striking the entrance of an Iranian prison. Iran has asked Russia for help, while vowing revenge against the US. Follow the latest and listen to The World podcast below.

The Guardian

40 minutes ago

• The Guardian

British man says he fears for family trapped in Iran by Home Office appeal

A British man has told of his fears for his family who are trapped in Iran after winning the right to reunite in the UK, because the Home Office have appealed against the decision. After news broke in the early hours of Sunday morning that the US had bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, fears for the safety of the man's parents and sister, currently stranded in Tehran, are mounting. The man, who the Guardian is not naming to protect his family, said: 'It breaks my heart knowing the difficulties that my parents and sister are having. The daily worry and coordination to support them all add to a sense of helplessness. 'Since escaping from Afghanistan after the arrival of the Taliban in 2021 my parents have lost their home and community, all their belongings and their careers.' The man, who has dual Afghan and British citizenship, said he was frantic with worry after his parents said bombs have been exploding around them in the neighbourhood where they are sheltering. The family tried to come to the UK legally, and were initially refused, but an immigration tribunal ruled that the parents and daughter had a right to family life in the UK with their British son and brother. However the Home Office has appealed against the judge's ruling to a higher court in an attempt to keep the family out of the UK. It is not known when the case will finally be determined and the family fear they are running out of time. The family cannot be named because the lives of the parents and daughter, currently in Tehran, are in extreme danger. The parents, both in their 60s, opposed the Taliban regime both times it has been in control of Afghanistan. The father was a doctor who worked with international NGOs and the mother was a teacher who continued to teach Afghan girls in secret during the Taliban's first rule, which banned girls' education. She was also a women's rights activist. The daughter was close to completing a university degree when the Taliban took over for the second time and was forced to abandon her studies. She is trying to help her parents stay alive in Tehran. Both have serious physical health problems and her mother uses a wheelchair. Both parents suffer from PTSD. The family had initially escaped from Afghanistan to Russia where they were granted temporary protection, but when the daughter was given an ultimatum to join Russian forces fighting against Ukraine or face deportation to Afghanistan the family fled again, this time to Iran, one of the few countries granting entry visas to Afghans. Shortly after they arrived, hostilities between Iran and Israel increased. Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion According to government data in 2024, Afghans were the largest nationality group crossing the Channel, making up 17% of the 35,359, more than 6,000 people. The next biggest nationality groups were Syrians, Iranians, Vietnamese and Eritreans. The UK government granted entry to more than 30,000 Afghans in two resettlement schemes set up after the Taliban takeover in August 2021 but the schemes have been criticised for their narrow scope and slow pace of decision-making. The family's solicitor Diana Baxter at Wesley Gryk said: 'This is a stark example of what happens when refugees try to seek 'safe and legal routes' to come to the UK. This family have ended up living in dire conditions initially in Russia and now in Iran. The Home Office has the power to grant the family entry to the UK but it is choosing not to do so.' A Home Office spokesperson said: 'It is our longstanding policy not to comment on individual cases.' Home Office sources said that between 2010 and December 2024, the UK resettled more than 35,000 individuals under UNHCR resettlement schemes, the sixth largest number in the world after the US, Canada, Australia, Germany and Sweden.

The Independent

41 minutes ago

• The Independent

How will your household costs be affected by conflict in the Middle East?

Donald Trump's decision for the US to bomb Iran has seen fears of a crisis in the Middle East deepen, with the world braced for a counter attack from Tehran. In one retaliatory move, the country has already voted to shut down a key shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, prompting warnings of another spike in oil prices. The price of oil has been on the rise over the past three weeks – amid Israel strikes on Iran's nuclear sites – but there are concerns it could rocket even further, with one expert warning of a possible 40 per cent increase. As well as the effect on the price of gas and petrol, any move from Iran to close the shipping route could also affect the likes of transport, production and inflation domestically. Why do oil prices rise and fall? When talking about the price of oil, what we're typically looking at in the UK is Brent Crude, which relates to oil from the North Sea and is a worldwide benchmark of future prices of oil across most markets. There are others, such as WTI, but Brent is typically the focus. Brent was above $122 per barrel in 2022, a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which resulted in far higher energy costs, while the price was as low as $25 in mid-2020 when the Covid lockdown meant demand was incredibly low. Right now, it's just under $78. Like any market, a commodity like oil is primarily subject to supply and demand. Too much supply will lower prices so businesses buy it up; if there's more demand, prices can increase accordingly. But oil is subject to many other factors. Opec (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) can decide supply by setting quotas on barrels produced, while weather conditions can also affect production. The various costs of doing business in different parts of the world can also impact the supply line. What's the situation with Iran and Strait of Hormuz? Israel sent rockets into Iran on June 13, before President Trump demanded 'not a ceasefire, a real end' to the conflict. Following that, the US fired their own missiles into Iran across the weekend, hitting nuclear facilities and prompting the Asian nation to threaten retaliation. While the attacks centre around Iran's nuclear production, oil prices are impacted because that nation controls the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for around 20m barrels a day, as well as producing more than 1.5m barrels of oil a day themselves. Should Iran opt to close the Strait due to escalated warfare, the restriction of oil supply would therefore be expected to see prices rise further - but so far markets aren't necessarily predicting that. 'Oil and gas prices are staying very calm, all things considered, and the gains in the immediate aftermath of the American bombings in Iran are perhaps more muted that you might have expected,' said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. Mr Mould suggested factors such as political interventions or Iran's lack of response so far may be a reason for that. Goldman Sachs has warned the price of Brent could rise to $100 and even peak at $110 if the Strait was closed and flows were cut by half for a month, then remained lower than usual for the rest of the year. Perhaps significantly, the investment bank analysts rate the chances of a closure of the Strait at 52 per cent at present. What rising oil prices mean for consumers The immediate link is of course regarding the price of fuel for vehicles, but that's not the only factor at play. 'Where oil and gas go, petrol and energy prices may follow, but regulators and consumers are watching and it may take a period of sustained strength or weakness for the forecourts to show big changes,' explained Mr Mould. 'There's generally about a 4 week gap between movements in oil prices and petrol prices – the chart below illustrates this quite well,' Thomas Pugh, chief economist from RSM UK told The Independent. Over the past month, Brent oil has risen from the mid-60s to its current price point - a rise of more than 18 per cent. How oil prices affect inflation As noted earlier, the spike seen in 2022 contributed enormously to rising energy bills. It's not just that higher oil (and gas) means higher bills for those commodities when businesses or households eventually use them, but also that it in turn means higher transport costs and production costs. All this is a contribution to rising inflation. Mr Mould noted that 'Israel's first missile strike on Iran 10 days ago will already have had some inflationary impact,' which in UK terms will be seen as another blow to efforts to get the economy growing. 'If oil and natural gas prices stay where they are currently, that will add about 0.1 percentage point to inflation in Q3,' predicted Mr Pugh. 'In terms of overall inflation impact, the rule of thumb is that a $10 per barrel rise in oil prices nudges up inflation by about 0.1ppt in the short term and closer to 0.2ppt in the long term, once the impact has filtered through the supply chain.' With UK inflation at 3.4 per cent last month, the danger now is that these external factors mean domestic inflation faces another threat, which in turn might force interest rates to remain higher for even longer than expected - in turn again slowing economic growth efforts.