Analysis: Is the United States headed for a Trump recession?
Opinion by Heather Long
Heather Long is a columnist at the Washington Post. She was US economics correspondent from 2017 to 2021 and a member of the editorial board from 2021 to 2024. Before The Post, she was a senior economics reporter at CNN and a columnist and deputy editor at the Patriot-News. She also worked at an investment firm in London and was a Rhodes Scholar.
THREE KEY FACTS:
The alarming signs just keep coming since US President Donald Trump announced massive global tariffs on 'Liberation Day'. The price of gold has soared to an all–time high as people rush for the ultimate safe asset. The US dollar
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
NZ Herald
an hour ago
- NZ Herald
Trump calls Fed's Powell ‘moron', considers appointing himself to central bank
US President Donald Trump escalated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday - publicly mulling whether to fire the official and appoint himself to the central bank. The Republican leader, who regularly berates Powell over the bank's decisions not to lower interest rates, took to Truth Social
RNZ News
3 hours ago
- RNZ News
Donald Trump disavows his own spy chief Tulsi Gabbard's take on Iran's nuclear programme
By Trevor Hunnicutt , Reuters President Donald Trump, accompanied by Tulsi Gabbard. Photo: ANDREW HARNIK / AFP US President Donald Trump said on Friday that his Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was wrong in suggesting there was no evidence Iran is building a nuclear weapon. Trump contested intelligence assessments relayed earlier this year by his spy chief that Tehran was not building a nuclear weapon when he spoke with reporters at an airport in Morristown, New Jersey. "She's wrong," Trump said. In March, Gabbard testified to Congress that the US intelligence community continued to believe that Tehran was not building a nuclear weapon. "The [intelligence community] continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon," she said. On Friday (US time), Gabbard said in a post on the social media platform X that: "America has intelligence that Iran is at the point that it can produce a nuclear weapon within weeks to months, if they decide to finalise the assembly. President Trump has been clear that can't happen, and I agree." She said the media had taken her March testimony "out of context" and was trying to "manufacture division." The White House has said Trump would weigh involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict over the next two weeks . On Tuesday, Trump made similar comments to reporters about Gabbard's assessment. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has justified a week of airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets by saying Tehran was on the verge of having a warhead. Iran denies developing nuclear weapons, saying its uranium enrichment program is only for peaceful purposes. In March, Gabbard described Iran's enriched uranium stockpile as unprecedented for a state without such weapons and said the government was watching the situation closely. She also said that Iran had started discussing nuclear weapons in public, "emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus." A source with access to US intelligence reports told Reuters that the assessment presented by Gabbard has not changed. They said US spy services also judged that it would take up to three years for Iran to build a warhead with which it could hit a target of its choice. Some experts, however, believe it could take Iran a much shorter time to build and deliver an untested crude nuclear device, although there would be no guarantee it would work. Trump has frequently disavowed the findings of US intelligence agencies, which he and his supporters have charged - without providing proof - are part of a "deep state" cabal of US officials opposed to his presidency. Gabbard, a fierce Trump loyalist, has been among the president's backers who have aired such allegations. The Republican president repeatedly clashed with US spy agencies during his first term, including over an assessment that Moscow worked to sway the 2016 presidential vote in his favor and his acceptance of Russian President Vladimir Putin's denials. - Reuters
RNZ News
a day ago
- RNZ News
Trump's new two-week negotiating window sets off scramble to restart stalled Iran talks
By Kevin Liptak, Kylie Atwood and Jennifer Hansler , CNN Photo: AFP / Brendan Smialowski US President Donald Trump's decision to open a two-week negotiating window before deciding on striking Iran has set off an urgent effort to restart talks that had been deadlocked, when Israel began its bombing campaign last week . The hope among Trump and his advisers is that Iran - under constant Israeli attack and suffering losses to its missile arsenal - will relent on its hardline position and agree to terms it had previously rejected, including abandoning its enrichment of uranium, according to US officials. The deferred decision, which came after days of increasingly martial messages from the president suggesting he was preparing to order a strike, also gives Trump more time to weigh the potential consequences - including the chance it could drag the United States into the type of foreign conflict he promised to avoid. Negotiating a diplomatic solution in Trump's condensed timeline appeared to face significant early hurdles. Earlier this week, discussions were underway inside the White House to dispatch Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance to the region for talks with Iran, but as Trump grew wary that diplomatic efforts might succeed, the idea never resulted in scheduled talks, and both Vance and Witkoff remained in Washington as of Thursday. Foreign ministers from Britain, Germany and France are travelling to Geneva on Friday to hold talks with Iranian representatives, and have been briefed on the details of the last deal Witkoff offered to Iran, which Tehran ultimately rejected, before the Israeli strikes began. US officials did not have high expectations of success for Friday's meeting in Geneva, but a White House official kept the door open to progress. "This is a meeting between European leaders and Iran," a White House official said. "The President supports diplomatic efforts from our allies that could bring Iran closer to taking his deal." Iran's consistent message to the US since Israel began its strikes has been it would not engage in further talks, until the ongoing Israeli operation ends, two sources familiar with the messages said. The US had so far not pressured Israel to halt its strikes, sources said, and Trump said this week that his message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been to "keep going". So far, Iran has offered no indication it is willing to move off its positions on enrichment, which it views as a red line. As of Thursday, no official talks between the US and Iran were on the books, US officials said. In putting off a decision, Trump appears to be placing more stock in a diplomatic solution that only a day earlier he appeared to suggest was out of reach. "I think the president has made it clear he always wants to pursue diplomacy, but believe me, the president is unafraid to use strength if necessary," press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, after relaying Trump's new two-week timeline. "Iran and the entire world should know that the United States military is the strongest and most lethal fighting force in the world, and we have capabilities that no other country on this planet possesses." New vehicle tracks and dirt piles over underground centrifuge buildings at Natanz enrichment facility. Photo: AFP / Maxar Technologies In a string of situation room meetings over the course of this week, Trump has quizzed advisers about the likelihood US bunker-buster bombs could entirely eliminate Iran's underground nuclear facility at Fordow and how long such an operation might last, according to people familiar with the conversations. He has repeatedly insisted he wants to avoid taking action that could devolve into a multi-year conflict, something many of his own loyalists - including one-time top strategist Steve Bannon, with whom the president had lunch Thursday - argue would be unavoidable, should he make the decision to go ahead. While the president has seen the military options, he remains worried about a longer-term war. Any assessments on whether a strike would cause prolonged US engagement are predictive and, by their nature, not entirely satisfactory, one official said. The new, within-two-weeks time-frame for talks was not universally welcomed. An Israeli intelligence official expressed dismay that Trump would not make a decision - one way or the other. "This is not helping," the official said. Trump will continue to convene top-level intelligence briefings over the coming days, returning to Washington early from a weekend trip to his property in New Jersey to be updated at the White House. He has relied principally on CIA director John Ratcliffe and Joint Chiefs chairman Gen Dan Caine in meetings to discuss his options, according to people familiar with the matter. At the centre of the diplomatic efforts will be Witkoff, the president's friend and foreign envoy, who has led negotiations meant to curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Witkoff began direct-messaging with his Iranian counterpart, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, earlier this month and the administration has maintained some communications with Iranian officials over the past tense days, as Trump weighed a strike. The plan Witkoff last offered to Tehran would have required Iran to eventually end all uranium enrichment on its soil and, on Thursday, the White House said it still viewed a ban on Iranian uranium enrichment as necessary to a final deal. As the Europeans head into Friday's meeting, they will be "taking the temperature" on how receptive the Iranians are to finding a diplomatic solution, given their belief that strikes in both directions are not a solution, a European official said. European leaders believe the risks of Iran's nuclear programme persist even amid Israel's strikes, because Tehran maintains nuclear know-how and may still have clandestine nuclear-related efforts that won't get demolished by military strikes. Meanwhile, most US diplomats who are not in Trump's inner circle at the State Department have not been given specific guidance to offer US allies on the diplomatic efforts, a US official and a European diplomat said. That has led to many frustrating discussions with foreign interlocutors as US diplomats have very few answers to give the allies as they try to determine their diplomatic and military posture in the region, pointing only to Trump's own words. Marco Rubio. Photo: Pool / AFP / Jacquelyn Martin As Trump has weighed his options, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been close by, also departing early from the Group of 7 summit in Canada along with the commander in chief earlier this week. On Monday, the top US diplomat spoke with his French, British and European Union counterparts about efforts to "encourage a diplomatic path that ensures Iran never develops a nuclear weapon", according to State Department readouts of the calls. On Wednesday, Rubio "compared notes" on the matter with the Norwegian foreign minister. Rubio met with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy on Thursday, before Lammy departed for the Geneva talks, and the two "agreed Iran can never develop or acquire a nuclear weapon", according to the State Department. "Meeting with Secretary of State Rubio and Special Envoy to the Middle East Witkoff in the White House today, we discussed how Iran must make a deal to avoid a deepening conflict," Lammy said in a statement Thursday. "A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution." US officials, including Witkoff, have also been actively engaged with officials in the region, many of whom have offered their help in mediating a diplomatic path forward. Sources said Iran had responded to messages from third parties, but their responses had not changed. - CNN
